One way or another, this week marks the beginning of a new era in German politics.
Angela Merkel’s decision to step back from politics – firstly, quitting as CDU party leader within a few weeks, and then, in 2021, stepping away from the role of Chancellor (should she survive that long) is both hugely significant and hugely symbolic.
The significance is easy to grasp: Merkel became Germany’s first female leader of a political party on April 10, 2000. In November 2005, she became Chancellor in a ‘Grand Coalition’ with the SPD.
Since then, as her power has grown and then ebbed, she has remained a totemic figure in European and, indeed, global politics.
And that is where the symbolism comes in. Centrist politics, where Merkel and the CDU have long made their home, are under pressure in Germany and around the world.
While the ‘rise of the right’ has made itself felt from Europe to the US and, this week, in Brazil, that is a gross over-simplification of the challenges that Merkel has faced.
Politics has become more polarised, for sure, but with German voters being drawn both left and right – Sunday’s state elections in Hesse saw the CDU lose 11% of its votes, recording its worst result there since 1966.
Just as significantly, Merkel’s governing coalition partners in the SPD saw their vote plummet too, and they found themselves in a dead heat with the left-leaning Greens.
Hesse’s buoyant economy and low unemployment did not stop voters from drifting to the far right, and the anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) finished fourth, entering the state parliament for the first time. It is now represented in all of Germany’s 16 states.
Polls in Hesse suggested that around half of those voting wanted to send a message of protest to politicians mired in infighting and sundry crises in Berlin.
Well, they certainly did that, and the result has left Merkel mortally wounded.
While we already knew she intended this to be her last adventure as Chancellor, now she will have to contend with growing opposition from within her own ranks, as the CDU seeks to throw her overboard and appoint a new captain.
Who will that be?
Step forward Health Minister Jens Spahn, a critic of Merkel, and CDU General Secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbaauer, aka AKK and the woman considered to have been groomed by Merkel to take over.
Other names in the fray include Friedrich Merz, a former parliamentary leader of Merkel’s conservative alliance and one of her oldest rivals, and Armin Laschet, one of the CDU’s five deputy chairmen.
The governing coalition does have time on its side – the next electoral tests are not until May next year, when elections to the European parliament and Bremen state elections take place.
Whoever takes over as leader of the CDU will have little interest in calling new elections – indeed, the governing CDU and SPD leadership teams both understand the need to demonstrate at least competence to voters, and have six months in which to push scandal and argument into the shadows.
Since the CDU spluttered in the 2017 parliamentary polls, the headlines that Merkel wakes to have been relentlessly negative: she lost her key parliamentary henchman, Volker Kauder, who was forced out by unhappy coalition lawmakers; her grand coalition has teetered on the edge of collapse over migration issues; and there has been an unhelpful scandal involving the country’s spy chief.
Whether ‘Must do better’ is sufficient to turn things around remains to be seen, but it is the minimum required if the centrist parties are to start building political muscle again.
And, of course, for the new CDU leader, there will be the question of how disadvantageous being associated with Merkel is. This is particularly relevant to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbaauer.
It could be a time for political blood-letting, and it will be intriguing to see whether the party divides along generational lines.
Jens Spahn is much admired by the CDU’s right-leaning youngsters. He is gay, nationalist and not afraid to decry the ‘disruption’ caused by Merkel’s controversial immigration policies, in particular what he sees as ’anti-gay, misogynistic and antisemitic’ traits in Arab immigrants from Arab countries.
That could certainly put the cat among the pigeons in a post-Brexit Europe. Talking of which…
It’s the question that gets asked in Britain but, in Germany, the answer is likely to be: Who cares?
Germany is going to be too focused on its own politics to expend energy on Brexit. The EU will remain a core priority for whoever succeeds Merkel and anyone hoping that German political upheaval will offer an opportunity for Britain to strengthen its Brexit hand is likely to be disappointed.
Germany has to sort Germany out, and work out what the political landscape for the next generation is going to look like. And it’s likely to look very different.
Professor Simon Green is Pro-Vice-Chancellor Research at Aston University, in Birmingham