Boris Johnson is expected to delay his Cabinet reshuffle in a bid to survive a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons on his first full day in office.
The Tory leadership frontrunner is braced for an attempt by Jeremy Corbyn to force a general election on Thursday July 25, the day after Theresa May hands over the keys to No.10.
Senior sources told HuffPost UK that Johnson is aware of the fallout that his first reshuffle could cause, with some departing ministers on ‘rebellion watch’.
Under one plan discussed by key allies, he would instead delay the government shake-up until the Commons has risen for its summer recess, with Friday July 26 pencilled in for the changes.
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Some around Johnson believe that they would win a confidence vote later this month because it would be too soon for Tory MPs worried about a no-deal Brexit to take the drastic step of voting down their own government.
But they don’t want to risk creating any new rebels by sacking them from ministerial posts while the Commons is still sitting.
“I think we will be fine with the 25th when we could have a vote of confidence,” one ally said. “All he needs to do is hold off reshuffling. People won’t have cause to be difficult, they’ll have cause to be hopeful.
A senior figure said: “For Christ’s sake, he will have only just been elected, the party needs to give him a day. It will be just seen as unreasonable [to vote against him].”
Assuming Johnson beats Jeremy Hunt in the Tory leadership race, he is expected to go to Buckingham Palace on the afternoon of Wednesday July 24, after May has completed her final, farewell prime minister’s question time.
Only one cabinet minister, Rory Stewart, has said they would refuse to serve in a Johnson government, and if he resigns the new No.10 will simply say a replacement would be appointed in due course.
Key ministers such as chancellor Philip Hammond are set to be axed or moved, but in a show of solidarity they would sit on the front bench when the new PM makes his first statement to the Commons on July 25.
Johnson is determined to present a united front in that first oral statement, going full throttle in attacking Corbyn across the despatch box, but a confidence vote is highly likely to be called by the Opposition.
Just a handful of Conservatives are needed to trigger a general election, but many are waiting until October - and closer to the Halloween deadline for finally quitting the EU - to take the ‘nuclear option’ of voting with Corbyn.
Labour figures also expect Johnson to delay a reshuffle until after MPs go away from Westminster that week. “There are already some unhappy people, why would he want to make them more unhappy? A delay would make sense,” one said.
In the wargaming of his first days in office, MPs and aides close to Johnson have been sketching out plans to ‘hit the ground running’ with plans for a reworked Brexit deal and new Downing Street team.
With the Commons not sitting, the new government will be “free of the distraction” of votes or possible rebellions and ministers will quickly be expected to get to grips with their new jobs, one source said.
A cross-party attempt to block a no-deal exit is expected to take place in September, when the Commons returns from its six-week summer break.
Johnson himself has in recent days been irritated with some of his supporters for “peacocking” in a bid to get top jobs in his Cabinet.
One source confirmed that he had spoken to colleagues to tell them to cut out the freelancing on policy which is distracting from his core message on Brexit in the leadership campaign.
Johnson has steadfastly refused to offer any individual posts in public and in private, which is partly why some ministers and former ministers are trying to jockey for preferment.
His ‘transition’ team are however looking at various options. One lead contender for chief whip is former Brexit minister Chris Heaton-Harris, an avid Brexiteer who is well liked among colleagues for his calm and open manner.
A former whip but also a long-standing Eurosceptic since his time as an MEP, he would prove pivotal in the reshuffle process of balancing different wings of the party.