In politics, it’s often better to be lucky than good.
Boris Johnson is a case in point. For most occupants of 10 Downing Street, being fined by the police for laws that you imposed on the country would be career-ending.
But coming against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine (and just days after that iconic walkabout in downtown Kyiv with Volodymyr Zelenskyy) Conservative MPs are in no mood to unseat their boss.
Throw in the fact that Commons is in recess for Easter, and that the local elections are just three weeks away, and it’s clear that Johnson is safe, at least for now.
Two months ago, the Conservative parliamentary party was in revolt, with MPs publicly calling on prime minister to quit as the full scale of lockdown-breaking parties in Downing Street became clear.
Since then, however, Russia has invaded Ukraine and the PM is widely acknowledged to, so far, have had a good war.
This means that while the issuing of fixed penalty notices to Johnson and chancellor Rishi Sunak is hugely embarrassing, it is highly unlikely that alone will cost either men their job.
Tory MPs have Johnson’s fate in their hands. If 54 of them submit letters of no confidence in his leadership, a vote is triggered which could well bring him down. But we are no longer in that territory.
Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross, one of the 30 or so who did stick in a letter earlier in the year, but who has subsequently withdrawn it, said replacing the prime minister “would destabilise the UK government when we need to be united in the face of Russian aggression and the murdering of innocent Ukrainians”.
That view was echoed by Tory grandee Roger Gale (no fan of the PM) who said: “We are in the middle of an international crisis and I am not prepared to give Vladimir Putin the comfort of thinking that we are about to unseat the prime minister of the United Kingdom and destabilise the coalition against Putin.”
Another Tory MP told HuffPost UK that his colleagues “will hold their judgment until the result of the local elections” on May 5.
But even a catastrophic night for the Conservatives - and today’s announcement definitely increases the chances of that - will not result in Johnson being handed his P45.
Not for the first time in his career, Johnson is set to survive a scandal which would have been terminal for other politicians.
It’s also far from unhelpful for the PM that Sunak - until recently seen as Johnson’s replacement-in-waiting - has seen his own political ambitions nosedive in recent days.
That’s not to say that he is in the clear, of course. Another unforeseen calamity is often just around the corner with this prime minister.
But for as long as his luck holds, Johnson will cling on to the keys to Number 10.