It may have only been nine days since Boris Johnson became prime minister, but he is already facing the first electoral challenge of his premiership – and he is expected to lose.
In Brecon and Radnorshire – a seat in mid Wales – voters will head to the polls today not only to decide who should represent them in parliament, but the strength of the government’s already fragile majority.
If the Conservative Party loses the seat to the Liberal Democrats as the pollsters predict, it will leave Johnson with a majority of just one in the House of Commons.
And, with the PM likely to face crunch votes designed to stop a no-deal Brexit in autumn, every vote will count in the coming months.
The by-election comes after Chris Davies, who was first elected in 2015, was ousted from his seat by recall petition in June, making him only the second MP in history to be removed from parliament in such a way.
Around 19% of Davies’ constituents – 10,005 people – signed a petition calling for him to lose his job after he was convicted over making false expense claims.
He was fined £1,500 and sentenced to 50 hours of unpaid work in March after admitting two charges of forging invoices to decorate his constituency office.
But despite his constituents’ attempt to oust him, Davies was still chosen to stand for the Tory Party in the election in a bid to win back the seat.
His biggest competition is thought to come from Jane Dodds, the candidate for the Liberal Democrats, who held the seat between 1997 and 2015.
Speaking ahead of his visit to Wales on Tuesday, Johnson told voters to avoid the Brexit Party, vowing that “only the Conservatives” could deliver Brexit.
“This by-election is between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, and the Liberal Democrat candidate will do everything they can to stop Brexit,” he said.
“So if the people of Brecon and Radnorshire want to get Brexit delivered on time, they need to vote for my candidate, Conservative Chris Davies.”
The results of the by-election are expected during the early hours of Friday morning.