“Now, this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
When Britain’s most famous prime minister Winston Churchill spoke those words in 1942, he *probably* wasn’t thinking of Brexit. (Okay, he definitely wasn’t – he was talking about a victory in north Africa in world war two.) But his words ring true today.
After two years of negotiations with the EU, hundreds of press conferences and one very dramatic attempt to steal a ceremonial mace, it might feel as if the end of Brexit is in sight.
Theresa May’s Brexit deal may have suffered a crushing defeat in the Commons on Tuesday night, but with March 29 just two weeks away, a clean break from the EU can’t be too far off, right?
Wrong.
Now the PM’s deal has been so roundly rejected, MPs have the chance not only to take no-deal off the table, but to potentially extend Article 50 – pushing Brexit back even further.
With the European Union reportedly keen to see the UK gone in time for EU elections, it means Brexit could be delayed until the middle of May – a hold up Brexiteers are unlikely to be keen on.
But even if the UK miraculously leaves at exactly 11pm on March 29, Britain’s exit from the EU really is just the “end of the beginning”.
That’s because – unless there is a no-deal Brexit – the UK will immediately enter a transition period with the EU.
It’s during that time that negotiators from both sides of the Channel will decide what the future UK-EU relationship will actually look like.
In other words, if the EU and UK were an unhappy married couple, until now they have only decided *how* to divorce – not who gets custody of the dogs.
While it was agreed in the withdrawal agreement – which has yet to get parliament’s seal of approval – that the transition period should end in December 2020, it was accepted that the UK could apply to extend it by as much as two years.
It’s only when the transition period is finished that Brexit will truly be over and the UK will be able to trade with the EU under a new deal. (Except of course if a deal can’t be reached, then the backstop – i.e. the thorn in May’s side – will be triggered.)
So maybe add an extra bag of coffee to your shopping list this week (and every week for the next three and a half years) – it sounds like we’re all going to need a hell of a lot of caffeine to really get through the Brexit rollercoaster.