There are 16 days to go until the UK is due to leave the EU.
After MPs rejected – for the second time – Theresa May’s proposed Brexit deal, no one really knows what is going to happen next. But there are plenty of options on the table.
First things first: on Wednesday night, at around 7pm, MPs will start voting on whether to back a no-deal Brexit.
They are expected to reject this. They are then expected to vote tomorrow in favour of delaying Brexit by extending Article 50.
Beyond these two votes, there are A LOT of unknowns, and everyone is guessing what might happen next.
So here are the key questions, answered as clearly as possible given that everyone in Westminster is trying to figure it all out.
How long could Brexit be delayed by?
The prime minister has said any extension must be “short”.
But the EU must agree to it.
And European leaders have said there must be a “credible justification”.
In other words, Brussels wants to know what the UK wants, not just what it does not want.
Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s Brexit coordinator, said on Wednesday morning he is “against any extension if it is not based on any clear opinion of the House of Commons for something”.
There is also the small matter of the European Parliament elections which begin on May 23. The EU does not want any extension to interfere with them, and if Brexit is delayed beyond that date, it means the UK will still need to take part.
Could there still be a no-deal?
Yes.
Even if MPs vote against no-deal on Wednesday evening, this does not stop it happening.
It is the default outcome if an agreement between the UK and EU is not signed, whether Article 50 is extended or not.
Will there be a second referendum?
Many pro-EU MPs are pushing for a second referendum in an attempt to stop Brexit.
However, leading Remainers are worried there are not yet enough MPs ready to publicly back a so-called People’s Vote so have held back from pushing it to a vote.
Labour has said it will back a second referendum, but the party leadership appears to have rowed back on that pledge in recent days.
There is also the question of time. To hold another referendum, parliament would have to pass new legislation.
Will there be another general election?
Downing Street has said it is “not preparing for and we do not want a general election”.
But that does not mean one will not happen.
Charles Walker, a senior Tory backbencher, has said May will have to hold one. “It is not sustainable, the current situation in parliament,” he warned.
Labour has already tried and failed once to force a general election by tabling a vote of no confidence in the government.
Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, said this week the party would “take every opportunity” to do it again if it looked like it could win.
A general election that produced a majority government, whether Conservative or Labour, could break the deadlock in the Commons allowing the new government to push a deal through parliament.
Will Theresa May resign?
Theresa May survived an attempt by some Tory backbenchers to oust her in December. Under party rules that means she is safe from another challenge for 12 months.
May could however decide the game is up and that it is time to quit. The Conservatives would then have to pick a new leader to replace her as prime minister.
Will Article 50 be revoked?
Technically the British government can unilaterally decide to cancel Brexit by revoking Article 50. It does not have to get the EU to agree. But this seems the least likely of all options.
