MPs expect London to be moved into the toughest tier 3 coronavirus restrictions from December 19, HuffPost UK understands.
In a call with MPs from the capital, health minister Helen Whately stressed that no decision had been made to move the city up from tier 2.
But MPs who saw data presented by London public health director Kevin Fenton are expecting tighter restrictions to be imposed as London now has the highest case rate in England.
One of those on the call said a decision is expected at the review point for current Covid tiers on December 16, before being published the next day.
Areas would then move into their new tiers two days after that.
It means pubs, restaurants and cafes would once again be forced to close except for takeaways, and outdoor meetings would only be allowed in public places like parks and forests.
One MP at the briefing said the call was “grim” and that the data “100%” pointed to tougher tier 3 measures being imposed on the capital.
“There’s no way from the data presented they would make any other decision,” they said.
Tory Stephen Hammond suggested schools in London could break up earlier than planned for Christmas as part of efforts to bring down high infection rates among teenagers, according to two MPs present.
But there are also concerns about worrying rises in cases among the over-65s, with hospitalisations also expected to increase.
The pressure on hospitals in the north-east of London is already “quite intense”, one MP said, and there is concern that the help they are getting from other areas may be unavailable soon with cases rising across the capital.
Some of the data used at the briefing also showed cases rising during the four-week lockdown which ended on December 2, with one MP suggesting London could be entering a similar phase of the epidemic to Manchester, which has suffered tough restrictions for months.
On the call, Whately urged MPs to stress to their constituents how important it is to follow the restrictions as London’s cases surge.
South London Tory MPs pushed for separate arrangements to the rest of the city but were told this is unlikely.
London mayor Sadiq Khan is known to favour a city-wide approach.