This Covid Flow Chart Explains Why The Pandemic Is Still Running On

Some experts believe we won't escape this Covid cycle until we make substantial changes to our current approach.
Traveler holds vaccine passport certificate to show COVID 19 vaccination status
seksan Mongkhonkhamsao via Getty Images
Traveler holds vaccine passport certificate to show COVID 19 vaccination status

A member of independent Sage believes the UK is stuck in a cycle when it comes to dealing with spikes in Covid cases.

Christina Pagel, a professor of operational research at UCL, explained in a Twitter thread on Tuesday why the UK population is still getting infected (and reinfected) with Covid, more than two years into the pandemic.

It comes after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed that there have now been close to 200,000 deaths related to Covid since the start of the pandemic.

Around 50,000 of these deaths have happened since last summer, even though thatā€™s when the majority of the country became fully vaccinated.

This suggests the pandemic is still having a serious impact on the UK, even though the government has ruled that we are now ā€œliving withā€ the virus.

So how are we stuck in a Covid loop?

Pagelā€™s chart explains that why living with ā€œfrequent mass Covid infections is a BAD IDEAā€, because it becomes a negative feedback cycle for transmission.

THREAD on why "living with" frequent mass Covid infections is a BAD IDEA (& what we can do!):

There is a negative feedback cycle for transmission & *each time* we go through it in a wave we damage our people, our NHS and our economy a bit more.

let me show you how... 1/17 pic.twitter.com/ZKeM5bygn4

ā€” Prof. Christina Pagel šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡¦ (@chrischirp) July 12, 2022

She pointed out that Covid waves usually start within under-vaccinated groups which do a lot of social mixing, such as schoolchildren or young adults.

This then disrupts education, and usually leads to an increase of infections among pupils and teachers.

It soon spreads to parents and other age groups, meaning plenty of people have to call in sick to work either due to acute Covid, which causes economic disruption with a struggling workforce, or long Covid symptoms, which cuts down on worker numbers altogether.

Pagel said thereā€™s then more pressure on remaining employees to work when sick, which leads to more general exposure to Covid and infection.

The virus can then mutate, and the cycle begins again.

She pointed out that while death rates right now remain low, hospital admissions are high, further stretching the NHS.

ā€œHigh workplace absence and cost of living mean more people feel they have to work when sick. That plus barely any mitigations means more exposure and infection.

ā€œAnd loads of infections means more chances for the virus to mutate further, more chances to find fitter versions.

ā€œThe virus evolves and drives more waves. Waves are closer together and higher in 2022 than in previous years.ā€

The specialist then concluded that the next wave in autumn is ā€œinevitableā€ due to waning vaccine efficacy and as Covid evolves.

What can we do to curb cases now?

She said that while vaccines are effective at reducing exposure, we need additional measures to curb the virusā€™ transmission.

Pagel suggested asking infectious people to stay home ā€œwith good sick pay and supportā€, and ā€œreduce impact of exposure through clean indoor air, masks, PPE where needed and prioritising outdoor living where possibleā€.

She said this is a more efficient measure to prevent infections, as it happens prior to infection.

Developing next generation vaccines will ā€œalso massively help to reduce exposure and impactā€.

Other scientists have, once again, pointed to the need for vaccine equity ā€“ sharing the jabs around the world, rather than letting the wealthier countries take more than their fair share.

Madhukar Pai, professor and Canada research chair of epidemiology at McGill University, wrote in Forbes that a ā€œstaggering 2.6 billion people, a third of humankindā€ still havenā€™t received one dose of the Covid vaccine. Without vaccinations, thereā€™s more space for Covid to mutate and evolve to become more deadly.

Similarly, the Covid technical lead at the World Health Organisation, Maria Van Kerkhove, tweeted: ā€œItā€™s not over and we are playing with fire by letting the virus circulate at such intense levels.ā€

We are not yet living with #COVID19 responsibly. Not even close.

ShortšŸ§µ

ā†—ļøPeople are dying unnecessarily
ā†—ļøMillions infected each week
ā†—ļøBillions not fully vaccinated
ā†—ļøLives & livelihoods suffering
ā†˜ļøDismantling systems needed to end the global emergency & fight the next one pic.twitter.com/B43NDbplNi

ā€” Maria Van Kerkhove (@mvankerkhove) June 19, 2022

Pagel also tweeted an ominous warning about the current, dominant variant: ā€œDespite Omicron being billed as ā€˜mildā€™ very soon weā€™ll have recorded more deaths in the Omicron era (6 mths so far) than in the Delta era (7 mths).ā€

Similarly, Professor Tim Spector of Kingā€™s College London and co-founder of the ZOE Covid app, tweeted that the cases logged through app users have reached a new record.

ā€œOver 351,000 daily new cases on the Zoe app ā€“ that 1 in 15 people with the virus currently.

ā€œStill rising across England but flattening in Scotland and Wales.ā€

However, he concluded: ā€[Infections in] all age groups increasing but kids levelling so hopefully flat within a week.ā€

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