The UK is likely to enjoy a relatively Covid-free Christmas for the first time in three years, experts have said.
Covid cancelled meet-ups for millions in 2020 and while family gatherings were back on the cards in 2021, office Christmas parties and new year celebrations were advised against.
But now, we could finally see a return to full festive frivolities.
Modelling by University College London (UCL) predicts that infections will continue to fall between now and Christmas. Though unfortunately, we may see cases rise again in January 2023.
“It looks as if the current peak has passed. The long-term forecast suggests a subsequent peak after Christmas,” Professor Karl Friston, of UCL, told The Telegraph.
“This appears to be largely driven by seasonal fluctuations in transmission risk and a slower underlying increase, due to the emergence of new variants.
“One should perhaps also note that virulence has declined substantially, particularly in the face of vaccination. This means the morbidity and mortality of a large post-Christmas wave should be substantially less than previous years.”
The latest official figures show 47,058 people tested positive for Covid in the last seven days. It may sound high, but it marks a 15.3% decrease from the week before. The number of hospitalisations and deaths related to Covid are also way down.
However, as we’ve grown to learn with Covid, nothing is guaranteed just yet and scientists will keep and eye on any new variants threatening to disrupt the downward trend.
Last week, two new variants were given official designation by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), but neither have been labelled “variants of concern” at the moment.
Vaccination remains the best way to protect yourself, so find out if you’re eligible for an autumn booster here.