A series of last minute General Election polls have all concluded that the Conservatives should be the victors today, but according to one poll the gap between the two major parties could be as narrow as just one percentage point.
Eight polls were published on Wednesday night, just hours before polling booths across Britain opened at 7am, with the closest margin predicted by Survation who had the Tories on 41.3% and Labour on 40.4%.
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A further poll, by Ipsos MORI, released shortly before midday on Thursday gave the Conservatives an eight point lead, 44% over Labour 36%.
According to HuffPost political editor Paul Waugh in Thursday’s Waugh Zone: “Many candidates and organisers in both parties tell me they simply don’t believe the polls have captured the big shift to the Tories in Labour Leave towns in the north and midlands.”
The polls also came as projections by YouGov showed Labour would be well short of gaining the 326 seats needed to get an overall majority. The Conservatives, according to the projection, would get 269-334 seats and Labour could expect 238-302 with others including the DUP making up the remainder.
This is what they found:
Ipsos Mori:
The latest poll, released shortly before midday on Thursday, had the Conservatives on 44% and Labour eight points behind on 36%.
While young people were more likely to vote Labour 49%, than the Tories 28%, and older voters were set to do the opposite - Tories 60% to Labour 23% - one in five voters said they might still change their mind.
Labour supporters were marginally more likely to say they could change their mind, one in five (19%), the poll found, compared to 13% of Conservative voters (and 33% of Liberal Democrats).
Ipsos MORI found just under half of those surveyed think May would be the most capable PM, 47%, while 36% backed Corbyn.
“The Conservatives had a wobble last week, but have regained a clear lead in the last few days,” Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI said.
“Theresa May’s advantage over Jeremy Corbyn is also lower than it was at the start of the campaign, but she and her party have kept their support among key voting groups such as older people. Having said that, one in five voters say they might still change their mind, so there are still votes to fight for.”
Survation:
The Survation poll had the Conservatives at 41.3% and Labour on 40.4%. The Liberal Democrats were next, with 7.8%, Ukip got 2.4%, SNP 3.6%, Plaid Cymru 1.7% and the Green Party 2.3%.
Survation’s final poll put Jeremy Corbyn just 0.9% behind Theresa May on vote share. The margin of error for the poll was a standard 2-3 point margin.
Kantar
Kantar had the Conservatives ahead by five points, at 43%, with Labour at 38%. The Lib Dems had 7%, Ukip 4% and SNP 4%.
While the Tories were still ahead, Kantar’s polls had May’s party down five points from the 10 point lead it had a week ago.
Kantar predicted the Tories would gain 10 seats, winning 341, and a formal majority of 32 seats. Labour would get 232 seats.
It further speculated that if the ‘best PM’ and ‘best party to manage the economy’ metrics were “more indicative of the final result a much larger Conservative majority is possible”.
For example, if the ‘best PM’ metric was the most accurate, on a uniform national swing we would expect 366 seats for the Conservatives and a comfortable 82 seat majority. Regional variations in swing might even lead to a larger total, possibly even up to the landslide territory of 400 seats. This illustrates the impact a double digit vote share victory could have on the makeup of the House of Commons.
ICM
An ICM poll for the Guardian gave the Tories a 12-point lead of 46% to Labour’s 34%.
The poll pointed to a Tory majority of 96 - 373 seats - according to electoral calculus estimates, the newspaper reported. Labour was estimated to get 199.
It noted the prediction was short of the landslide many pundits predicted six weeks ago but that the Tories had a one-point lead in the marginal seats it is defending, at 45% to 44%.
“This final poll confirms the pattern that ICM has produced over the last fortnight: a fairly healthy and static Conservative share with consolidation of the Labour bump first witnessed after the manifesto publication,” said ICM’s Martin Boon.
Opinium
Opinium gave the Conservatives, 43%, a seven point lead over Labour, 36%.
Despite giving the Tories an overall majority, Opinium, said its final poll was in “stark contract” to the 19 point lead held by the party at the beginning of the parties campaign.
It added that the Labour poll ‘surge’ “appears to have crested but the campaign had hurt May’s reputation.
The campaign has damaged the reputation of the Prime Minister, despite a likely Conservative win, with Theresa May’s approval ratings falling from +21% at the start of the campaign to just +5% on average across all voters. While Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has seen his popularity increase to -7%, it doesn’t seem to been enough to challenge the Conservatives.
ComRes
ComRes gave the Conservatives a 10 point lead, 44% over Labour, 34%. The Liberal Democrats had 9%, Ukip 5%, SNP 4% and the Green Party 2%.
Using the ComRes ‘PM squeeze’ - reallocating ‘don’t know’ voters on the basis of the prime ministerial preference - the Conservative lead rises to 12% (46% compared to Labour’s 34%), its results read.
Consistent with previous ComRes polling, fully half (50%) of 2015 UKIP voters say they will now vote Conservative. This equates to almost 2m votes, or around 6% points on the Conservative vote share.
The public is split in its reaction to the prospect of either a Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn victory in tomorrow’s Election, with 51% saying they would be optimistic about Britain’s future if May wins, compared to 49% if Corbyn wins.
However, reactions to a Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn victory are polarised between age groups, with three quarters of those aged 18-24 saying they would be relieved if Corbyn won and the same proportion of those aged 65+ saying the same of a May victory (both 73%).
The public is more likely to be concerned about the country being able to pay for everything the new government wants to do if Jeremy Corbyn were to win tomorrow’s election than Theresa May (62% v 38%).
YouGov
A poll by YouGov for the Times gave the Conservatives a seven point lead, 42%, to Labour 35%. The Lib Dems got 10% and Ukip 5%.
When asked who would make the best prime minister, May received the backing of 43% of those polled. Corbyn had 32% support.
The seven point Conservative lead is the same as at the previous election, but we think it is likely they will nevertheless be returned with an increased majority.
Our Scottish polling for the Times suggest the Tories are outperforming there and will win a good handful of seats from the SNP, and there is also a widespread expectation that they will perform disproportionately well in Labour-held seats that voted for Brexit.
As we go into Election Day, the Conservatives still look set to secure a solid lead in votes and an overall majority. The question is how large.
Panelbase
Panelbase surveyed 1,224 people and gave the Conservatives an eight point lead, 44% to Labour’s 36%. The Lib Dems were on 7%. Ukip was on 5%.
While Panelbase gave the Tories a healthy lead, the Conservatives were down 15 points from when it last conducted a survey.
BMG
BMG gave the Tories a 13 point lead, 46% to Labour’s 33% on Westminster voting intentions.
Scottish Westminster voting had the Scottish National Party leading with 42% followed by the Tories on 27% and Labour on 21%.
Survation had the SNP on 39%, Labour in second at 29% and the Tories on 26%.