As we enter the campaigning period for what will be one of the most historic and unpredictable elections of recent times, the party that properly understands the Northern Powerhouse will perform best. Following England’s defeat to South Africa in the rugby union World Cup Final at the weekend, it’s rugby league towns and the people that live in them that have been said to be critical to whether Boris Johnson returns to Number 10 or not.
But it’s not about Workington man, Widnes woman or Wakefield families. It’s about all of them and more, what matters to people in our cities and towns. The North-South divide, which has blighted the UK for generations and has contributed to an overheated capital and South-East, remains stubbornly in place; affecting some of the key issues on which this election will be fought – jobs, health, education, transport.
Any party that thinks northern communities, across a wide geography and with hugely-varied histories and heritage, are all the same is fundamentally misjudging those places and what matters to people living there. Research by the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, of which I am Vice-Chair, today shows that many of these traditional, working-class towns – too often dismissed by Westminster types – are performing relatively well economically; in many cases outperforming nearby Northern cities where rugby league also is played.
Workington, singled out this week, is a good example. Patronised by some in the media coverage of the work published by Onward as a typical, left-behind Northern town, its unemployment rate of 2.2% is considerably lower than the national average (4%). Its weekly average wage for full-time workers is £590 a week; a fiver a week higher than the UK average. Less than 10 miles south of Workington is Whitehaven, where the weekly average wage is £671. A potential significant factor in these relatively-high numbers is the nearby presence of Sellafield and its supply chain – a jewel in the crown of the North’s expertise in the energy sector, and a sector Labour is not as supportive of within the wider decarbonisation agenda.
Significantly these towns and others such as Warrington and Barrow in Furness, are outperforming many comparative Northern city constituencies on these metrics. Too many pundits have tried to create a city versus town debate, claiming that the latter are getting left behind. This is overly simplistic, and ignores the data.
As our research shows, the average wage in rugby league towns is £543 a week, compared to £512 in the cities, with the prosperity of our city centres often a key asset to the wider regional towns around them. An approach to tackle low productivity and growth in Northern places must be on a city region basis, understanding that getting a high-paying job in a nearby city can lead to a secure family life.
Let’s not pretend these figures tell the whole story though. While on some metrics parts of the North are performing strongly – data from the Purchasers Managers’ Index has shown the Northern Powerhouse has begun to outperform London in recent years – the average weekly wage in London is £699 and £636 in the South-East. Educational attainment is higher in the South, transport networks have seen investment and are integrated and health outcomes are higher.
Rugby league towns and cities are dotted right across the North, but are they particularly associated with the M62 corridor and beyond; from Merseyside to the Humber. This collection of towns and cities are uniquely close together, yet far apart in terms of transport connectivity and collaboration as soon as you get to the last tram stop from Manchester, or the end of the Metro lines out from Newcastle. Allowing these towns and cities to reach their potential is the overriding objective of the Northern Powerhouse; the vision I proposed when brought into George Osborne’s Treasury.
If we are to be serious about economic rebalancing, levelling up the country so that the North is as prosperous and productive as the South, this Northern Powerhouse must be at the front of the queue for any new government. Our transport network must be significantly upgraded, our schools are in urgent need of targeted-funding to tackle entrenched disadvantage, and we need devolution right across the North to ensure the crucial decisions affecting our 15 million people are made by elected local leaders.
Successive prime ministers have failed to grasp the potential of the Northern Powerhouse. Our competing political parties have that chance in this election. A strategy for the North needs to address how the success of our Northern cities can often benefit their neighbouring towns, and together create an economy which rivals the megacities of the world in fields like energy and manufacturing where London and the South-East will never lead for the UK. Pulling together all its city and wider regions, rather than viewing the city and town next door as competing not collaborating, is key to unlocking the potential of the Northern Powerhouse, and the key to Number 10.
Lord Jim O’Neill is an economist and Vice-Chair of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership.