It’s fair to say that 2020 has been quite a rocky year for the new government, but it’s proved incredibly consistent in one particular area – its ability to perform embarrassing U-turns.
The tally during the coronavirus pandemic stands at 10, with the latest – over the wearing of face masks in schools – coming just yesterday.
As there’s absolutely nothing to suggest that this avalanche of vacillation, equivocation and befuddlement won’t continue, HuffPost UK thought it prescient to sketch out where U-turns 11, 12, 13 and perhaps even beyond may come.
1) National lockdown
In July Boris Johnson effectively ruled out another national lockdown, instead comparing it to a “nuclear deterrent” to get people to follow social distancing guidelines.
Speaking to The Telegraph, the PM stressed he did now want to see a repeat of the restrictions of March that crushed the UK economy and added: “Nor do I think we will be in that position again.”
Instead the government has enforced a series of local lockdowns in areas such as Greater Manchester and Birmingham.
What is not clear is what happens if enough local lockdowns are put into place to effectively shut down all of England, but if that did happen, the government might just be able to get away with saying it’s not a U-turn.
2) The furlough scheme
Around one in eight of the UK workforce remain on furlough ahead of the winding down of the job retention programme next month.
From then, the government will only contribute 70% of wages, with this reducing to 60% in October, before the furlough scheme is completely wound down.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak has repeatedly ruled out extending the scheme, saying on August 7: “I think most reasonable people will say: ‘Gosh, that’s not something that can carry on forever.’ In common with almost all countries around the world [...] their versions of this are slowly being wound down toward the end of the year.”
But the Scottish government and a number of industries are putting pressure on Downing Street to extend the scheme amid fears that, without a safety net, unemployment will soar.
In its latest report, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) calculated that the jobless rate would surge to around 10% of the country’s workforce – equivalent to three million people on the dole – by the end of the year.
So if Sunak and the government decide that the cost of another month or two of furlough is worth propping up even some of the millions of jobs that could otherwise be lost, a U-turn could well be imminent.
3) The evictions ban
The government has already done a U-turn of sorts here, twice extending the eviction ban that protected renters during the Covid-19 outbreak.
Announced in March and extended in June, it was due to end in England and Wales on August 23.
But despite doubling down on its insistence that lifting the evictions ban is an “important step” towards ending lockdown and “protect landlords’ important right to regain their property”, it was given another four weeks.
Ministers have been urged to act to prevent a “homelessness crisis” with up to a quarter of a million people at risk when it is finally lifted.
4) School closures
The government was criticised for taking its time to close schools in March but they eventually closed their doors on March 20.
It resulted in exams being cancelled, Ofsted inspections being suspended, and children – especially those without internet connections, computers and spaces to study at home – left without much if any education for five months and counting.
But earlier this month Williamson vowed that all schools – including those in areas facing local lockdowns – would return in September. Fast forward to Wednesday morning and the education secretary was on the BBC telling listeners: “We never expect to be in a situation where we will be closing all schools down right across the country.”
Yet teachers have warned that the government’s plans to reopen schools are “flimsy” and could result in students being sent home within days if even a single person within a large class “bubble” falls ill – to say nothing of secondary schools, where specialist subject teachers are required to see multiple classes of children.
And if the feared second spike occurs as the year wears on, it is not hard to imagine the government deciding to reimpose the measures it deemed necessary in March.
5) Face masks in schools
The government has already U-turned on this once, saying on Tuesday pupils at school in locked down areas would need to wear face coverings in communal areas such as corridors (but not classrooms). Just a day earlier a No.10 spokesperson had said: “There are no plans to review the guidance on face coverings in school.”
Asked on Wednesday if he’d consider expanding the rule to classrooms, or schools in other areas, Williamson told BBC Breakfast: “No, no, there’s no intention of extending it beyond that because as both [deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries] said and [schools minister Nick Gibb] said, that actually isn’t what is required.”
It’s not a massive stretch to say he might end up relaxing this, especially if it means keeping schools open (see point 4), given how rapidly the position changed about masks being in schools at all.
6) Gavin Williamson’s job
Sally Collier, Jonathan Slater and a “mutant algorithm” – all these have been blamed and/or sacked for Gavin Williamson’s A-level grading fiasco, while Gavin Williamson himself still has a job.
The education secretary has faced intense pressure to quit, including from several of his fellow Tory MPs, but remains in post following the debacle.
Labour shadow minister Bill Esterson insisted “the buck stops” with Williamson and “sooner or later, he has to go too”.