The UK is now 30 times more likely to be hit by a heatwave than it was before the industrial revolution, the Met Office has warned after temperatures in the UK hit record-breaking levels.
The mercury reached 38.1C in Cambridge on Thursday, making it the hottest ever July day and the second hottest day on record. It was beaten only by 38.5C in August 2003.
Meteorologist Sarah Kent told HuffPost UK that the likelihood of “extreme heat events” in the UK was now higher than it was in the past thanks to a rise in average summer temperatures.
“Looking at average UK summer temperatures in the period 2008 to 2017, the average temperature has risen by 0.7C compared to a thirty year period between 1961 and 1990,” she said. “This rise makes the possibility of extreme heat events more likely than before.
“There was a study done on the 2018 heatwave and that showed that the probability of a similar event is now 30 times more likely than back in 1750 – that’s before the industrial revolution.”
The current heatwave comes amid rising worries about the effects of global warming – though the Met Office said it could not link one spell of weather to climate change.
But Kent added: “The UK Climate Change Panel has shown that if we don’t do anything to counteract climate change the probability of a heatwave event as we saw last summer will increase to around 50% by 2050.
“So we are likely to continue to see hotter summer weather and an increase in associated heavy, thundery downpours.”
It comes after the government’s advisory Committee on Climate Change warned the UK is not prepared for the increase in heatwaves that is expected with global warming.
Asher Minns – executive director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research – told HuffPost UK the next 18 months would be “critical” for assessing whether the UK government was genuine in its support of the targets set by the UN Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
“The majority of UK citizens are worried about climate change, that worry has to be addressed,” he said. “Many many Local Authorities are declaring climate emergencies because of Extinction Rebellion, and setting targets for net zero CO2.
“The conditions for achieving net zero in response to citizen demand come from Westminster not the town halls.”
Thursday’s sweltering heat led to chaos for rail commuters after Network Rail implemented speed restrictions amid fears tracks could buckle in the heat if trains travel too fast.
Meanwhile, Nick Scriven, president of the Society of Acute Medicine, warned that NHS staff were “struggling” in the heat – and at risk of making mistakes as a result.
“Last year, hospitals hired in large fans and coolers for a week or so but have got nothing long-term in place – they are purely reactive not proactive,” he said, adding there was often little in place for staff to get fluids on wards.