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Oliver’s army
So, will the big showdown turn into a big letdown? It certainly looks like Sir Oliver Letwin could bring to a sudden halt Boris Johnson’s Brexit victory lap in the wake of his EU summit triumph.
The former Tory grandee’s new amendment to the planned ‘Super Saturday’ Commons vote is as skilfully crafted as the Benn Act that hangs like a sword of Damacles over any no-deal exit plan.
If passed (and that looks likely given hints not just from whipless Tories but also Labour), the Letwin amendment would trigger the Benn legislation and require the PM to write a letterseeking an extension to the UK’s membership of the EU beyond October 31.
That’s exactly how No.10 sees it, and they’re right to. Both the Benn Act and the EU Withdrawal Act 2018 require MPs to “approve” the deal. Letwin’s careful wording - “this House has considered the matter but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed” - basically says ‘we’re not approving this thing yet’.
For the purposes of the legislation, that is a decision ‘not to approve’. And if no approval is forthcoming by 11pm on Saturday night, Johnson will be forced by law to write that damned letter he so wants to avoid. It’s essentially an insurance policy for an insurance policy.
Letwin is however keen on Johnson’s deal and has made clear he would vote for it. That’s why he thinks his wording will also be seen as an ‘in principle’ endorsement of the deal despite the caveat.
But the caveat is crucial - and it screams that Letwin simply doesn’t trust the PM (or rather the European Research Group ) not to run down the clock to a no-deal exit. Such suspicions were further fuelled when Brexiteer John Baron let slip today that he was prepared for ‘no-deal’ after a transition.
Of course, as soon as the legislation for Johnson’s deal and a ‘meaningful vote’ are passed, then any extension becomes academic. With EU ratification that would follow, we would finally be out, three long years after 17 million people voted to Leave. The PM would have his moment of closure, and so would the nation.
It’s a big ask, but all the Brexit legislation could be rammed through before October 31. Yet even some close allies of the PM know it’s a tall order. That’s why, whisper it quietly, there are top secret contingency plans in No.10 to arrange for a two week extension to get all the Ts crossed and Is dotted, once the Commons has passed the Withdrawal Agreement Bill .
Nigel Farage may cry foul if the Halloween date is breached. However many on Team Boris think he can get away with a short delay as long as a deal looks secure. This will also be the message to the EU, who of course have to actually grant the extension - and Macron and Juncker and others may much prefer a fortnight’s delay to November 14 than a long slog to January 31 (the Benn Act date).
Don’t forget the Tories poll ratings didn’t drop much after Theresa May breached the March 29 Exit Day. They plunged once she breached the April deadline and it was all put off to October. So the party can survive a short delay but a long one would be hugely damaging.
The real lesson of this past week has been that Brexit is as much about politics as it is about technocratic fixes. The fixes are essential but so too are the personalities (Johnson has got Brexiteers to trust him) and tactics (no-deal really focuses minds).
And it may be the cunningly political solution of a short extension that gets this deal over the line, especially as whipless Tories could then come over in large numbers - and Labour Leave area MPs could convincingly tell their voters they’ve avoided no-deal.
A short extension would have the added bonus for Johnson of not allowing time for either a second referendum or a general election. And for all those cheering on Letwin today, the ironic fact is that those dreams of a People’s Vote could die on the same day that large numbers take to the streets to march for one on Saturday. If Letwin passes first, the Kyle-Wilson amendment for a public vote would not be reached.
Lots of Brexiteers loathe Letwin as someone who wants to ‘stop Brexit’. But in smoothing the way for a deal, he could emerge as Johnson’s greatest ally.
The man ridiculed by the ERG as ‘Parliament’s prime minister’ could help the real prime minister more than many assume. Instead of narrowly losing a straight yes/no vote on his plans, his chances of passing a deal in the next few weeks will be strengthened if Letwin succeeds. That won’t be a letdown, it’ll be a let off.
Quote Of The Day
’You don’t take a decision of destiny through a spasm of impatience”
– Tony Blair makes a last-gasp appeal to MPs not to be driven by bordeom with Brexit.
Friday Cheat Sheet
French President Emmanuel Macron told a press conference at the close of the EU summit in Brussels on Friday he wanted to “stick to” the October 31 exit deadline. “I do not think we shall grant any further delay,” he said.
Irish PM Leo Varadkar added “it would be a mistake” to assume an extension would get unanimous approval by all 27 member states. But Angela Merkel said a delay would be ‘unavoidable’ if Johnson’s plan was voted down.
Momentum founder Jon Lansman warned Labour’s NEC would replace any MPs voting for Johnson’s deal with ‘new, socialist’ candidates ahead of the next general election. But Labour MPs told HuffPost they’ve been told no one will have the whip withdrawn if they vote for the deal.
Tory MP John Baron told the BBC the UK would be able to leave the EU ‘on no-deal terms’ if trade talks failed at the end of the so-called transition period in December 2020. Labour chairman Ian Lavery said: ‘The cat has been let out of the bag... [and] no one should be in any doubt that Johnson’s deal is just seen an interim arrangement.’
Johnson’s deal could leave the UK £10bn worse off than May’s deal, according to new economic impact assessment by the UK in a Changing Europe think tank.
Scotland’s highest civil court has dismissed a legal bid to stop the UK government from passing its proposed EU withdrawal agreement. Lord Pentland ruled the application was ‘misconceived and unjustified’.
An Extinction Rebellion protestor dressed as Boris Johnson scaled Big Ben’s Elizabeth Tower.
What I’m Reading
The true story behind one of the most famous photographs of the Second World War - Tribune
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