The UK population will halve within 100 years without immigration, according to new data.
The latest release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has projected there will be almost five million more people living in the UK long-term in seven years’ time, due entirely to rising immigration.
The researchers projected that, between mid-2022 and mid-2032, 6.8 million more people will be born – a number which will be cancelled out by the 6.8 million estimated deaths.
A further 10 million will immigrate to the UK, but only five million will eventually emigrate and live elsewhere – meaning there will be a net five million extra people in the country, taking the country’s total population to 72.5 million.
This projection has sparked outrage from some politicians, with shadow home secretary Chris Philp saying there needs to be “a hard binding legal cap on visas issued each year” to address the influx of migrants.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage claimed this was the “biggest issue which faces our country”, warning that the country’s infrastructure would not withstand a larger population.
However, the ONS also found that, without this flurry of arrivals, the UK’s population will plummet over the next 100 years.
Its research projected that if migration fell to net zero – the difference between those who arrive in the UK and those who leave permanently – the population will fall to 34.9 million in 2122.
That’s much smaller than the current population, 67.6 million.
With “low” levels of migration, the ONS predicted that the UK would be home to 55 million people by 2122.
But, if there was high migration, there would be 103.8 million people living in the UK in 2122.
That’s because the number of deaths in the UK is starting to overtake the number of births, meaning the overall population will fall unless there were enough migrants coming in to boost numbers.
By mid-2047, there will be more 107,000 deaths than births – meaning net international migration becomes the only source of population growth.
And a smaller population means fewer people to tax – and a struggling economy, as the Resolution Foundation’s principal economist, Adam Corlett, pointed out.
He said: “A larger working-age population means a bigger economy, more workers, and higher tax receipts, which should deliver a fiscal boost of around £5 billion a year by the end of the decade.
“If the OBR [Office for Budget Responsibility] uses these population projections, this will be welcome news for the chancellor given the wider economic pressures she is facing.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been struggling to grow the economy, despite Labour’s repeated promises to do so.
However, in response to the latest ONS figures, the prime minister’s official spokesperson said: “The prime minister has been very clear that we need to bring down the staggeringly high levels of migration.”