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Taking a Rayner cheque
When Jeremy Corbyn addressed a crowd in a key marginal seat in Lancashire today, he said he’d asked his party’s local candidate: “What’s the thing you want from a Labour government that will help Blackpool?” A member of the public immediately heckled: “Brexit!”
Without skipping a beat, Corbyn ploughed on and stressed that local poverty, food banks, Universal Credit and expensive rents were all the local priorities. The Labour leader had already trumpeted his party’s new further education pledge and later pushed hard on the politics of flooding.
The sense that he wants to talk about many more issues than Brexit was underlined when Labour told HuffPost UK it would make a formal complaint to Ofcom about SkyNews’ tagline ‘The Brexit Election’. With Nigel Farage standing his candidates aside in Tory seats, the B-word will certainly affect polling day, but will it be the key factor?
Corbyn will be pleased he’s made the political weather (pun intended) today, visiting Doncaster (alongside local candidate Ed Miliband) and unveiling a new pledge for an extra £5bn in flood defences. Boris Johnson, looking like he was forced by Corbyn to hold an emergency Cobra meeting, hit back by sending 100 extra troops to Yorkshire. The PM also offered new cash help for firms and residents.
Johnson is similarly trying to defuse the Labour attack line on the NHS by talking about his own billions earmarked for the service. Corbyn again deployed his newest Brexit/NHS attack line, saying there was now “an alliance between Donald Trump and Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson”, a “sweetheart deal” that would “threaten our public services”.
Farage denied he was Trump’s puppet today. But it’s worth reading in full what he told Newsnight’s Nick Watt last night. Asked what Trump would think of his decision to step aside in Tory seats, the Brexit Party leader relied: “His big fear which he expressed to me the other week was if we go down the route of alignment, it virtually wipes out the prospect of a trade deal with the USA.
“And now Boris is kind of saying we go in for a Canada-style trade deal and so he’d be very, very pleased to hear that. And pleased to think that with a bit of help from me his [Trump’s] position looks markedly better.” If that quote doesn’t appear on Labour adverts, I’ll be surprised.
In his first election campaign bulletin today, Tony Blair (who used to win elections not commentate on them) suggested Johnson would inevitably have to extend the UK’s Brexit transition period or face no-deal. Yet even Irish deputy PM Simon Coveney said that getting a deal done by the end of 2020 was “possible…[although] I think the timeline will be very tight”.
Still, Johnson clearly thinks that ‘getting Brexit done’ is perhaps his most powerful catchphrase of this entire campaign. His main message in key Labour marginals is ‘look, you don’t have to like everything the Tories do, but trust me and lend me your vote this time’.
I’ve said previously that I’m sceptical about all the claims that this election will see a big increase in tactical voting. A Deltapoll has found that just six per cent of voters are ready to vote for another party other than the one they believed in. That’s well below the 30% that Best for Britain says is needed to stop a Tory government.
If a party (like the Brexit Party, Greens or Lib Dems) simply doesn’t field candidates in seats, some of their supporters may just not vote at all. Yet the new YouGov poll, which adjusts for Farage’s party not featuring in key seats, is giving the Tories a huge 12 point lead tonight. Survation, which polled before this week’s big news, reported a narrower 6 point lead.
Well, if Johnson does win a big majority, it may just be because of the folksy, direct communication he displays in tonight’s party political broadcast. Proving that he’s a far better campaigner than Theresa May, the PM recites his key soundbites like a consummate actor (and as we all know even his ‘unscripted’ remarks are really scripted). Talking about liking Marmite, the Rolling Stones, Thai curry, steak and chips, fish and chips and taking his dog for a morning comfort break, he then slipped effortlessly into the politics. Clunky format, but probably pretty effective.
For Labour supporters who despair at the polls, there was however one crumb of comfort today. Angela Rayner, standing next to Corbyn, proved just why she is an effective political communicator herself. Summoning up a real passion and authenticity about her own journey from teenage mum to senior MP, it got many thinking she would make an impressive future Labour leader. “Poverty is not just about being penniless, it is about being powerless,” was one of her best lines. And when she said the next Labour government could be even more transformational than the Attlee government, it felt like she meant it.
With Johnson often looking like he’s coasting, Rayner’s words felt like genuine anger. But perhaps it was also an anger that despite all of Johnson’s deceptions and U-turns, her own party was still 12 points behind - rather than 12 points in front - a government that has had nearly a decade in power. The Resolution Foundation’s new report (see below) sums up why Labour should be doing better in 2019.
Rayner also put her finger on something that will determine this election: not just pounds and pence, but power. When both parties are offering lots more spending, the key issue is who the voters believe and trust most - and who they think shares their values most. To coin a phrase, the voters may choose who is best placed to let them take back control of their lives, their public services and their communities.
There’s a whole month to go in this race of course and lots could change. But right now, for all the billions being offered by Corbyn, his personal poll ratings suggest that money can’t buy you love.
Quote Of The Day
“What he’s done really is shape the Conservative Party in his own image. The Conservative Party is the Brexit Party.”
Arron Banks tells the Oxford Union why he’s backing Johnson
Tuesday’s Election Cheat Sheet
Jeremy Corbyn and Jo Swinson visited flood affected areas. Corbyn unveiled a new pledge to spend an extra £5.6bn over 10 years improving flood defences. After an emergency Cobra meeting, Boris Johnson sent an extra 100 troops to Yorkshire and announced new cash help for individuals and businesses.
Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Jeremy Corbyn led tributes to former health secretary Frank Dobson, who has died at the age of 79. The Holborn and St Pancras MP will be sadly missed by many who knew him.
The Labour party suffered a second cyber-attack in two days. The National Cyber Security Centre said the party took the necessary steps to deal with the attack. The attack was not believed to be by a foreign state and was deemed ‘low level but high profile’ by experts.
Jeremy Corbyn is facing a fresh selection row after Labour picked one of his key allies to replace Keith Vaz in a normally safe seat. Claudia Webbe, an Islington councillor and long-time friend of Corbyn, was selected by a party panel on Tuesday to contest Leicester East.
Vaz’s seat has a huge majority, but Labour insiders fear a strong Tory challenge. Party chair Ian Lavery has distanced itself from conference policy on Kashmir for fear of losing British Hindu votes. Labour’s Tan Dhesi alleged “foreign interference” by the Indian nationalist BJP party in the general election.
Tim Walker, the Liberal Democrat candidate in the Labour marginal of Canterbury, has stood down after criticism he could split the Remain vote and harm Rosie Duffield’s chances of survival.
What I’m Reading
Feeling Poor, So Working More: Why The UK Has Record Employment - Resolution Foundation
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