It is exactly six months since Labour’s landslide general election victory, but for Keir Starmer it must feel like a lifetime ago.
Only the most optimistic of the party’s senior figures would have believed that the new government would enjoy a Tony Blair-style honeymoon period.
But few could have foreseen that voters’ affection for the PM would disappear quite so rapidly.
According to an Ipsos poll just before Christmas, 53% of the public are disappointed by Labour’s performance so far, while the party’s net favourability score has slumped from plus 6 in July to minus 21 now.
Asked to give the new government a mark out of 10, the public gave them a less-than-inspiring 4.
It’s not difficult to identify reasons why the shine has gone off Starmer as quickly as it has.
The decision to take winter fuel payments off millions of pensioners, the scandal over free suits and gig tickets, a cabinet resignation and the under-performing economy have all played their part in making the electorate decidedly grumpy.
Throw in the rise of Reform UK - breathing down Labour’s neck in dozens of seats - and it’s no surprise that many of the party’s new MPs are already nervously eyeing their majorities.
One told HuffPost UK: “Every government has to have a story to tell and we don’t seem to have one. What are we for? What are we trying to do?”
Another newbie said: “Before the election, everybody’s focus was on getting across the line. You’re campaigning to win and then it takes a while to adjust to being in office.
“I don’t think anyone can walk up Downing Street for the first time as prime minister prepared for what’s about to hit you. But we’ve been shown that in spades.”
One senior Labour figure said the party’s MPs “are not in a good place” as the government embarks upon its first full year in office since 2009.
Their mood was not helped by a seat-by-seat mega-poll by the More in Common for the Sunday Times which showed Labour is currently on course to lose nearly 200 MPs at the next election.
“Even if you tell yourself the election is still four years away, you can’t help looking up your own seat to see if you’re going to lose,” said a party insider.
“MPs are being inundated with complaints about winter fuel payments and from the business community about the rise in National Insurance, which just adds to the general sense of disappointment that the government can’t get its act together.”
A common criticism from those within the party is No. 10′s apparent inability to tell the public what it wants to do.
The launch last month by Starmer of his “plan for change” setting out six new milestones the government aims to achieve this parliament has, if anything, added to the sense of gloom.
“We’ve had six milestones, five missions and God knows how many targets - it’s all just a load of gobbledygook to your average voter,” said a source.
“The government needs to tell a much more compelling but simplistic story and be clear about what it’s about, but at the moment it doesn’t seem able to do it. There’s a real sense of foreboding among Labour MPs.”
While there is no serious risk to Starmer’s future, conversations are taking place among many in Labour about whether he is the right man to lead the party into the next election.
“If Keir’s second six months as Prime Minister are as bad as his first, they could very conceivably be his last,” said one veteran insider.
“If you are elected on trust, stability and cleaning up politics, and within the first six months you’ve broken promises on tax, you’ve had a cabinet resignation and you’ve had a freebies scandal, it’s not great.”
The decision to sack Sue Gray as Downing Street chief of staff after less than 100 days and replace her with Morgan McSweeney was an acknowledgment that things were not working.
“The operation has definitely stabilised since Morgan took over, but the absence of gaffes isn’t enough, there needs to be some progress on big ticket items like the NHS and immigration,” said a source.
“And if they don’t see those economic growth figures improve then it’s hard to see how they can maintain the rules about borrowing and investment.”
One experienced figure said the time a new government has to make a positive impression with the electorate has shortened since Labour was last in power, meaning Starmer does not have much time to change perceptions.
He said: “It used to be a year, but now I would say it’s six to nine months. Once the public are fixed in their minds it’s very hard to change it.
“They’ve got till the summer to get their act together, because at the moment the impression they’re giving is that they don’t know what they’re doing. And they don’t have Sue Gray to blame any more.”
It is not all doom and gloom for Starmer, however, and his allies firmly believe that the new year will see an upturn in fortunes for him and his government.
“Some of the criticism he’s had has been unfair,” said one senior figure. “The Tories genuinely did wreck every aspect of government and the economy, and completely hollowed out the state and public services.
“But it’s just a fact of politics that the voters, and the media, have short memories and we’re judged now on what we do, not how bad the last lot were.”
One backbench MP told HuffPost UK: “So far, there’s been governance but very little politics.
“I think they’ll get better at it because the only other option is to get worse and that’s not an option.
“But I expect us to start running through the gears now because they don’t want to be remembered for being great managers, they want to be remembered for changing lives.”
2024 was a year of great celebration, but also great consternation, for Labour.
Keir Starmer and his team will hope that 2025 is the year when the government gets into its stride before it’s too late.