Keir Starmer will warn that “things will get worse before we get better” as he urges voters to give his government time to repair the damage done by “14 years of populism and failure”.
The prime minister will use his first major speech since entering No.10 to tell the country that “things are worse than we ever imagined” before Labour’s landslide election victory in July.
He will draw a direct link between the last Tory government and the far-right rights which erupted earlier in the summer, saying they were a result of the “cracks in our society” left by the Conservatives.
But he will insist that given time, his administration will turn things around and ensure working people are “in the forefront of our minds and at the centre of everything we do”.
Starmer will say: “I said change would not happen overnight. When there is rot deep in the heart of a structure, you can’t just cover it up.
“You can’t tinker with it or rely on quick fixes. You have to overhaul the entire thing. Tackle it at the root. Even if it’s harder work and takes more time.
“Because otherwise what happens? The rot returns. In all the same places. And it spreads. Worse than before. You know that – and I know that. That’s why this project has always been about fixing the foundations of this country.”
The PM will add: “Things are worse than we ever imagined. In the first few weeks, we discovered a £22 billion black hole in the public finances. And don’t let anyone say that this is performative, or playing politics.
“The [Office for Budget Responsibility] did not know about this. They wrote a letter saying so. They didn’t know - because the last government hid it. Even just last Wednesday we found out the last government borrowed almost £5 billion more than the OBR expected.
“We have inherited not just an economic black hole but a societal black hole. And that is why we have to take action and do things differently. Part of that is being honest with people – about the choices we face. And how tough this will be.
“Frankly – things will get worse before we get better. I didn’t want to release prisoners early. I was chief prosecutor for five years, it goes against the grain of everything I’ve ever done. But to be blunt, if we hadn’t taken that difficult decision immediately, we wouldn’t have been able to respond to the riots as we did.
“And if we don’t take tough action across the board, we won’t be able to fix the foundations of the country like we need.”
Labour has come under fire for taking winter fuel payments off 10 million pensioners, while the government is also under pressure to scrap the two-child benefit cap brought in by the Tories.
But Starmer will say: “I won’t shy away from making unpopular decisions now if it’s the right thing for the country in the long term. That’s what a government of service means.
“This shouldn’t be a country where people have to fear walking down the street, or watch cars and buildings being set on fire.
“This shouldn’t be a country where the prime minister can’t guarantee prison spaces. But it also shouldn’t be a country where people are paying thousands more on their mortgage or waiting months for hospital appointments they desperately need.
“So, when I talk about the inheritance the last government left us - the £22 billion black hole in our finances - this isn’t about lines on a graph, this is about people’s lives. And the Tories are still not being honest about it. They haven’t recognised what they’ve cost the country and they haven’t apologised for what they’ve cost you.
“But I promise this - you will be at the heart of our government, in the forefront of our minds and at the centre of everything we do. That this government is for you, back in your service.”