Kemi Badenoch was not exactly full of optimism at the launch of the Tory Party’s local election campaign today.
Speaking from the Conservative safe seat of Buckingham, the party leader admitted they were going to have a “difficult” time when voters goes to the polls on May 1.
She stressed that the party’s popularity was high when the same council seats were last up for grabs in 2021 - effectively conceding that the only way is down this time around.
Badenoch said the Conservatives were still “riding the [Covid] vaccine bounce” four years ago.
She said: “This year will be different. This will be the first time since the general election, the greatest defeat in our party’s history, that we fight these seats.
“And if you mapped that general election result of 2024 onto this coming May, then we don’t win the councils like we won in 2021.
“We lose almost every single one. But I think we’re going to do a bit better than that. But we know these elections will be extremely difficult.”
The Tory leader also promised to bring “lower taxes and better services” to councils in her speech – but acknowledged it was going to be “tough” for her party when the public hit the ballot box in six weeks.
There will be elections in 24 of England’s 317 councils and mayoral authorities on May 1. Some council elections have been delayed due to re-organisation.
The pressure is on for Badenoch as it is her first major electoral test since she won the Tory leadership last November.
And, at the last local elections, Boris Johnson was the Tory PM and he had just brought in the Covid vaccines – meaning the Conservatives ended up taking a majority of council seats.
The Tory co-chair Nigel Huddleston also told Sky News this morning that he does not have high expectations for the local elections.
He said: “This is us having an election after losing the general election last year, [defending the] high-water mark of the 2021 local elections, where we got an incredible 65% of all seats.
“That’s about 30% higher than we normally get in local elections. This is following on from the vaccines roll-out. We won the Hartlepool by-election on the same day. So 2021 was a really high-water mark, and that’s what we’re facing against now.
“Now, we are fighting for every single vote in every single seat, but it will be difficult.”
Early polling suggests the Tories may be right to be concerned.
MRP local election surveys from Electoral Calculus predicted earlier this month that the Conservatives “will lose a large amount of support and councillors to the Reform UK party”.
But, Liberal Democrat leader Daisy Cooper still described the Tory leader’s opening gambit as “desperate”.
She said: “The first brick in the blue wall came tumbling down in Buckinghamshire in the Chesham and Amersham by-election.
“Now Kemi Badenoch is back there in a desperate attempt to shore up the crumbling Conservative vote as people in the home counties turn to the Liberal Democrats.”
Labour Party chair Ellie Reeves also criticised the launch, claiming the Tories have not “listened and will never learn”.
She said: “The public won’t forget the 14 years of chaos and decline Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party presided over. They left working people worse off, immigration soared to record levels, and our NHS was at breaking point. They haven’t listened and will never learn.
“Far from delivering lower taxes, average Tory council tax bills are £300 more than Labour councils.
“While the Conservatives carry on fighting amongst themselves and with Reform, our Labour Government is getting on with delivering our Plan for Change, driving much-needed growth, creating more jobs, putting more money in people’s pockets, and getting our NHS back on its feet.
“A vote for any Party other than Labour on 1 May risks re-opening the door to more of the chaos the Tories left behind.”