Once again, Boris Johnson finds himself grappling with whether to impose new curbs on the British people to tackle a new surge in Covid cases — this time caused by the rapidly spreading Omicron variant.
Ministers have repeatedly been unable to rule out introducing fresh restrictions over the Christmas period following dire warnings from scientists that if they want to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed then “more stringent measures would need to be implemented very soon”.
Johnson, alongside several other Cabinet ministers, is understood to be reluctant to introduce lockdown-like measures, instead favouring a light touch that would encourage people to use their own judgment and follow guidance.
According to reports, there are three options on the table that could be deployed to tackle Omicron: a full circuit breaker lockdown, a curfew on hospitality and advice to cut the number of social contacts.
The country’s fate could well be decided at a crunch Cabinet meeting at 2pm, which will be attended by chief medical officer Chris Whitty and chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance.
HuffPost takes you through the various scenarios and what they could mean.
Two-week circuit breaker/full lockdown
One option that is being considered is a so-called two-week circuit breaker that would ban mixing indoors.
According to the Times, draft regulations are being prepared that would re-introduce step 2 out of last winter’s lockdown, meaning indoor mixing would be banned, and pub and restaurant customers would have to be served outdoors.
Schools and shops would remain open and the rule of six would return, as would shielding for the most vulnerable and guest limits of 15 to 30 people for weddings and funerals.
Hospitality curfew
Under this scenario, hospitality venues such as pubs and restaurants would be told to shut at 8pm and compulsory social distancing would be re-introduced.
Advice on indoor mixing
The PM could also take a leaf out of Nicola Sturgeon’s book and simply ask the public to limit their socialising in the run-up to and aftermath of Christmas.
Scotland’s first minister recently asked Scots to only mix in households of three during the festive period — bar Christmas day — and stressed it would not be legally enforceable.
According to the Times, Johnson is thought to approve most of a similar approach on the grounds that people may already be policing their own behaviour and avoiding crowded places in the run-up to Christmas.
How would the new restrictions be implemented?
Last week transport secretary Grant Shapps said parliament would need to be recalled in the event the current Plan B restrictions — which include mask wearing in most indoor spaces, working from home and the use of Covid passports in some settings — are extended.
“The one thing I can say for certain is if we did need to do anything else parliament would be recalled too in order to vote on doing that — it wouldn’t just be an automated thing,” Shapps said.
Dominic Raab, the deputy prime minister and justice secretary, indicated on Monday morning that parliament would not be recalled this week — but the PM is running out of time if he wants to act soon.
When could the measures be introduced?
Reports on the timing of such measures have varied from immediately after Christmas — to avoid a re-run of last year — to before it.
Sources suggested to the Times over the weekend that the measures could be implemented from December 27 or 28, but some Cabinet ministers are pushing for the curbs to be brought in sooner rather than later.
Health secretary Sajid Javid refused to rule out imposing a circuit breaker before Christmas when he appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show.
While the government is still monitoring the data around Omicron, including the severity of illness and ensuing hospitalisations, Javid said: “If we wait until the data is perfect, it may be too late.”
What would further restrictions mean for Johnson politically?
The prime minister is facing a hugely divided cabinet and party on the issue of restrictions, set against the backdrop of a rough month in politics that has seen endless headlines over sleaze, Christmas parties, defeat in Tory heartlands, the largest Tory rebellion of his premiership and now the resignation of Brexit minster David Frost.
Leadership rivals Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak are said to be among those most opposed to restrictions, as is business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng and leader of the house Jacob Rees-Mogg.
On the other hand, Javid and levelling up secretary Michael Gove are said to be most in favour of acting quickly.
What is the latest update from government?
Downing Street is so far remaining tight-lipped on whether new measures will be brought in.
The prime minister’s spokesperson told reporters on Monday: “I appreciate there’s a great deal of speculation over the weekend, and indeed today, about what, if any, further measures may be required.
“At this point, we’re still monitoring the data and keeping a very close eye on it, as the deputy prime minister said this morning. We’d update if any further decisions are taken.”