Russian forces are “struggling” to overcome the “challenges” on the frontline in Ukraine according to the UK’s ministry of defence, in the latest indication that the war is not going to plan for Vladimir Putin.
Three weeks after the Russian president ordered his troops into Ukraine in an unprovoked attack, there’s little denying that the invasion has not gone as smoothly as the Kremlin might have predicted.
Russian troops are said to have expected Ukraine to surrender quickly, hoping the neighbouring nation would want their countries to be united under Putin’s influence too.
The Ukrainian resistance has so far managed to hold onto several key cities, aside from Mariupol where Russian troops have reportedly taken 500 people hostage. Putin’s forces have also upped the aggression in the last week, continually shelling Ukrainian civilians throughout the peace talks.
Even so, in its daily Twitter briefing, the ministry of defence (MoD) pointed out four key areas where it believes Putin’s troops are struggling.
It began: “Russian forces are struggling to overcome the challenges posed by Ukraine’s terrain.”
The 40-mile military convoy, which paused outside Kyiv for days at a time, did fuel speculation over why the terrifying garrison had stopped, what these soldiers planned for their next attack, and if the troops could survive in the military tanks for long.
The MoD continued: “Russian forces have remained largely tied to Ukraine’s road network and have demonstrated a reluctance to conduct off-road manoeuvre. The destruction of bridges by Ukrainian forces has also played a key role in stalling Russia’s advance.”
It also claimed that it’s not only Russia’s inability to navigate the land which is holding it back, but its army’s lack of authority in the skies.
“Russia’s continued failure to gain control of the air has drastically limited their ability to effectively use air manoeuvre, further limiting their options,” the MoD claimed.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been calling for Nato to “close the sky” above the besieged country to deter further shelling, but evidently the MoD still believes Russia has not been able to utilise the airspace effectively.
Finally, the government department concluded: “The tactics of the Ukrainian armed forces have adeptly exploited Russia’s lack of manoeuvre, frustrating the Russian advance and inflicting heavy losses on the invading forces.”
The Ukrainian forces have stunned the international community with their strength and resilience, putting up a much greater fight than their Russian counterparts might have expected.
Russia did concede that 498 of its troops had died in the conflict on March 3, although the West estimated that the real numbers were much higher. Almost two weeks later, Ukrainian newspaper Kyiv Independent alleges that 13,500 Russian troops have been killed in the war.
Putin even agreed to let troops from the Middle East volunteer to join the Russian Army earlier this week.
The MoD is not the only one predicting Russia’s downfall.
Yale history professor Timothy Snyder predicted that, unless Putin “lets up” on Ukraine, his legacy will be of establishing Russia as “a vassal state of China”.
He alleged that this is because the war in Ukraine is rapidly descending into a moral, economic and geopolitical disaster for Russia, as Putin looks for support from Chinese president Xi Jinping.
Similarly, political scientist and famous author Francis Fukuyama warned that the Russian military is facing “outright defeat”.
Writing for the American Purpose website, he said: “The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporise.”
He added: “Putin will not survive the defeat of his army.”
He claimed the Russian president only has support because he is “perceived to be a strongman” – if he loses that, “what does he have to offer?”