On Tuesday, Poland said it would give all of its MiG-29 fighter jets to the US – a move that potentially allowed the warplanes to be passed along for use by Ukraine’s military. But the US rejected the offer against a backdrop of fears about provoking a wider war with Russia.
What does Ukraine want?
Ukraine has been pleading for more planes to fight Russia’s invasion and retain control of its airspace. The US has been looking at a proposal under which Poland would supply Ukraine with Soviet-era fighter jets and in turn receive American F-16s to make up for their loss. Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly the Russia-made MiG-29 jets.
The air force has been far outnumbered by the much more powerful Russian air force, but Ukrainian pilots have continued to fly combat sorties and claim kills in combat despite repeated assertions by the Russian military that it has suppressed Ukraine’s air power and air defence assets.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a “desperate plea for European countries to provide Russian-made planes” for Ukraine’s fight against Russian invaders during a video call on Saturday with US politicians.
Why is it important? What is the risk?
A transfer of the MiGs to Ukraine is fraught with complications.
Nato – the military alliance of 30 countries – has said it does not want direct conflict with Russia, a fellow nuclear-armed power, and president Joe Biden has ruled out sending US troops into Ukraine to fight, something the Pentagon has said would apply to troops on the ground or in the air, flying missions.
While the handover of Poland’s 28 Soviet-made MiG-29s would signal Western resolve to do more to deter Vladimir Putin’s invasion, the fear is that supporting Ukraine’s air force would be seen in Moscow as participating in the conflict and open up suppliers to possible retaliation. An attack on Poland, a member of Nato, would trigger Article 5: “An attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all allies.” That is the “World War III” scenario many fear.
What has Poland said?
The Polish Foreign Ministry announced in a statement that Poland was ready to deliver the jets to the US Ramstein Air Base in Germany immediately and free of charge. “At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities,” it said.
The Polish government also appealed to other owners of MiG-29 jets to follow suit. Former Soviet-bloc Nato members Bulgaria and Slovakia also still have Soviet-made fighter jets in their air forces.
Poland is supporting Kyiv with defensive weapons, but has said it would not send jets to Ukraine, as it is not a direct party to the conflict between Ukraine – which is not a Nato ally – and Russia.
What has the US said?
After the proposal initially appeared to come by surprise, the US later rejected the idea as not realistic.
The Biden administration has sought to speed weapons deliveries to Ukraine, but the prospect of flying combat aircraft from Nato territory into the war zone appears too much of a logistical challenging at present.
The MiGs couldn’t be on Nato soil, and Ukraine might struggle to safely house and service them given the warfare on its territory. Another question would be how to deliver the planes to Ukraine since Polish pilots are also Nato pilots, and couldn’t fly them to Ukraine without risking Nato involvement.
“It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said of Poland’s proposal.
“We will continue to consult with Poland and our other Nato allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one.”