New polling suggests there could soon be a Labour mayor elected to the combined authority which Rishi Sunak’s own constituency sits in.
According to research from left-leaning Labour Together think tank, those who have already decided how they will be voting in Thursday’s York and North Yorkshire mayoral election are backing Keir Starmer’s party.
Labour’s David Skaith is on 41 points in the polls compared to the Tories’ Keane Duncan, who lags behind on 27 points.
The poll, conducted between April 26 and 30, also found 23% of the local electorate did not intend to vote, while 22% remain undecided.
This is the first time a mayor will be elected for the combined authority, which encompasses Sunak’s Richmond constituency.
It is one of the many eagerly anticipated local elections taking place this week.
Although a relatively small proportion of the population will be casting votes for their local authorities, it is a good way to measure the public’s attitudes towards Westminster parties ahead of the general election.
And it’s already looking pretty bleak for the Tories.
Of the eight constituencies in York and North Yorkshire, Labour only holds two right now including former Tory safe seat Selby, which was secured in a by-election last year.
The area is still seen as a Conservative stronghold, but it seems this could all start to shift with this week’s local elections.
Director of research at Labour Together, Christabel Cooper, said: “After a 21% swing toward the party in Selby and Ainsty last summer, our polling shows that Labour is competitive everywhere, including in Rishi Sunak’s backyard in North Yorkshire.
“A win here would indicate a terrible night for Prime Minister.”
Labour are on course to secure a further three seats in the area from the Tories, according to projections.
Sunak has held the seat comfortably since being elected in 2015, winning a majority of 19,550 in 2019.
But, a mega-poll conducted by Survation MRP for Best for Britain concluded in March that the PM’s lead in his seat will drop to be less than 2.5% over Labour – and that’s including the expected margin of error seen in most polls.
The same research suggested the Tories will win fewer than 100 seats in the next general election, if the Conservative share of the vote is translated into MPs.