The attempted coup against the Russian military may have only lasted a few hours, but it has triggered a “powerplay” between Vladimir Putin, his Belarusian counterpart and the leader of the rebels, analysts say.
It comes after Wagner mercenaries, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, attempted to overthrow the Russian military on Saturday.
Although an intervention from the Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko halted it shortly after it began, the act of rebellion has cast real doubt over Putin’s authoritarian regime. After all, the Russian president has ruled almost without any challenge to his authority since 2000 (until now).
And it’s not over, according to specialists from the Institute for the Study of War, who said: “The ongoing Putin-Lukashenko-Prigozhin powerplay is not yet over and will continue to have short-term and long-term consequences that may benefit Ukraine.”
Why is Prigozhin still a concern?
Previously a close ally of Putin, Prigozhin founded the mercenary group Wagner in 2014. They often carried out actions on behalf of the Kremlin around the world, without publicly being associated with the Russian government.
But, after Prigozhin started to take credit for Russia’s success at the battle of Bakhmut, he started to also allege that the Russian military were trying to eliminate the group.
He alleged the coup was just a means to protect his fighters from being absorbed into the Russian military.
The rebellion also showed the strength of support for him among the general public, considering Wagner allegedly took the town of Rostov-on-Don without resistance.
Despite this, the criminal charges against Prigozhin and Wagner have been dropped by the Kremlin.
The US-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, claimed: “Putin has likely decided that he cannot directly eliminate Prigozhin without making him a martyr at this time.”
The analysts speculated that the Kremlin will probably look to weaken the support for Prigozhin first, and “continue to attack Prigozhin’s character to break Prigozhin’s popular support, discourage Wagner personnel from following him to Belarus, and destroy his financial power.”
Meanwhile, Putin didn’t even mention Prigozhin by name during his three TV speeches addressing the turmoil that unfolded over the weekend.
He has just alluded to the Wagner chief, and seems to be trying to smear Prigozhin reputation by suggesting the mercenary group wasn’t even independent from the Kremlin, and has been funded by the state for the last year.
The ISW also pointed out that Russia is now installing heavy weapons and tanks to address the security problems highlights by the coup attempt – the armed rebellion managed to get 200km away from Moscow before the fighters were called off.
The Kremlin also needs to decide if it will dissolve the Wagner forces, even if it does manage to successful separate Prigozhin from the group.
What did the coup mean for Lukashenko?
Lukashenko is a loyal ally of Putin, and agreed to host nuclear weaponry on Moscow’s behalf in his own country.
Many believed this was a sign Belarus is gradually being absorbed into Russia – but his resolution of the coup seems to have reasserted Lukashenko’s independence away from Moscow.
According to his own claims, the Belarusian president mediated between Prigozhin and Putin, encouraging Prigozhin’s exile to Belarus in exchange for “security guarantees” for the Wagner Group from the Russian president.
The ISW speculated: “Lukashenko likely seeks to use the Wagner Group in Belarus to buy manoeuvring space to balance against the Kremlin campaign to absorb Belarus via the Union State.”
Lukashenko even publicly claimed he managed to negotiate between them at a time when Prigozhin wouldn’t take Putin’s phone calls.
His “boasting” about his skills is “humiliating for Putin” even if it’s not true, the analysts pointed out – and the Russian president hasn’t even challenged Lukashenko’s version of events or publicly thanked him, according to the ISW.
The Belarusian president has also suggested that Belarusians could join the Wagner Group in his country. This could help boost his country’s military strength away from Russia.
Why is this so bad for Putin?
The coup, while unsuccessful, was the first major challenge to his time as president – and could seriously weaken his authority just a year away from Russia’s presidential elections.
An adviser to Ukraine’s president even claimed that the “countdown” to the end of Vladimir Putin’s presidency has begun.
Andriy Yermak, the closest adviser to president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, announced during a briefing: “I think the countdown has started.”
Referencing what some see as the beginning of the Ukraine war, Russia’s annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula Crimea nine years ago, Yermak continued: “What Ukraine has seen since 2014 has become evident for the entire world.
“This [Russia] is a terrorist country whose leader is an inadequate person who has lost connection with reality.
“The world must conclude that it’s impossible to have any kind of serious relationship with that country.”
Ukraine has consistently looked for flaws within the Russian regime ever since Putin launched his brutal invasion of the country, as a means to shake the country’s morale.
But, this is a sentiment shared by other prominent leaders, such as the US secretary of state Antony Blinken and the UK’s foreign secretary James Cleverly.
Putin is said to be in talks with allies in Iran and Qatar in a bid to shore up his position, too.
This could also shake Russia’s ability in the Ukraine war.
Moscow’s has already transferred heavy military equipment to the National Guard to boost internal security, which could also tie up weapons that could otherwise be used in Ukraine.
Russia’s only main success in the war recently was the capture of the small town of Bakhmut, a victory which was down to Wagner troops – and it’s not clear Moscow will be able to hold onto it.
Russian forces are said to be seriously depleted, in morale, weapons and numbers.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian counteroffensive claims that it is yet to unleash its main attack.