The Campaign for Better Transport (CBT) has called for a rail fare freeze after sharing that next year’s hikes could leave English rail passengers with an almost 8% increase in costs.
Last year, the government raised rail fares according to the average earnings growth rate, rather than the retail price index (RPI) figure (which they normally base rail price hikes on). That meant fares rose by 5.9 percent, rather than 12.3 percent.
But CBT says that, if the government uses the same method to calculate next year’s rail fares, we could see a rail price rise of almost 8%.
This speculation comes despite the Department for Transport (DfT) pledging to keep rises below last year’s July RPI figure of 9%, and their plans to delay the increases until March instead of the usual January
“Following last year’s biggest ever Government intervention to cap rail fare increases well below inflation, we’ll continue to protect passengers from cost of living pressures and we will not increase next year’s rail fares by as much as the July RPI figure,” a DfT spokesperson said.
“Any increase will also be delayed until March 2024, temporarily freezing fares for passengers to travel at a lower price for the entirety of January and February as the Government continues with its plan to halve inflation.”
But the worry is due to the UK’s recent wage inflation of 7.8%. If we use the most recent wage-based method to calculate the new fares, campaigners like CBT worry that we might race record fees.
Even a smaller hike would lead to many season tickets costing more than £5,000, according to CBT’s calculations.“Out of 40 popular commuter routes into London, a similar rise to this year (5.9%) would see 27 season tickets go above £5,000 next year, and ten pass the £6,000 mark with an annual season ticket from Southampton to London costing over £7,000 (£7,218),” Michael Solomon Williams, from Campaign for Better Transport, said.
The government has pledged not to tie this year’s rail fare increases to RPI, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll use the wage growth method to calculate the 2024 costs. Neither the DfT nor the government have officially announced how they’re going to work out the fees.
“We have said that we will keep it below inflation. Obviously I will be working closely with Mark Harper, the secretary of state [for transport], on what mechanism to use,” John Glen, chief secretary to the Treasury, told Sky News last month.
This only applies to England ― Scotland and Wales haven’t announced their 2024 plans for rail fares yet, and Northern Ireland uses a different system altogether (their fares are set by Translink).
But the potentially steep English fare hikes have caused concern for commuters and charities alike, with the CBT pointing out that fuel duty costs for motorists have been frozen for the last 13 years (meaning that, due to inflation, drivers have essentially had their fuel costs cut over the years).
“The impacts of inflation are being felt across the UK economy, including the rail industry, and a decision on fares has to strike a balance between supporting passengers and ensuring the financial sustainability of the railway,” the DfE said.
Time will tell how the “balance” will affect our wallets.