Rachel Reeves is so worried about the UK economy being in the red right now, that she appears to have forgotten Labour’s past promises to go green.
Labour vowed in its 2024 manifesto to make Britain the “green finance capital of the world” and work towards reducing greenhouse emissions by 100% from 1990 levels by 2050.
But despite those bold ambitions, the chancellor is set to throw the government’s weight behind a third runway at Heathrow - a project which has been around for well over a decade - as she desperately tries to boost economic growth.
Just six months since their landslide win, the government - which made economic growth its number one mission - is already struggling with sticky inflation, high levels of government borrowing, rising unemployment and falling business confidence.
Reeves is not expected to confirm Labour’s new-found support for a third Heathrow runway until next week – but the very idea has already lit up Westminster.
Would Reeves be defying the experts?
The government’s independent climate advisers, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), previously advised against increasing airport expansion.
It warned in 2019 that, if the UK wanted to reach its legally binding net zero goals, air passenger numbers should not rise by more than 25% before 2050.
The think tank, the New Economics Foundation, also found that Heathrow expansion would wipe out the benefit from Labour’s plan to deliver clean power by 2030 within five years.
The same organisation also found little evidence that airport expansion would even offer the economic growth the government is desperately pursuing.
The NEC concluded that over the last two decades, there’s been no net growth in air travel for businesses, no growth in jobs in the sector, real wages have fallen significantly, the UK’s domestic overnight tourism has shrunk and growth has only been driven by outbound leisure travel.
The think tank even warned that the carbon debt of the sector may impact other parts of the economy, while public consent for broader green transition will suffer if it does not appear consistent or fair.
Greenpeace’s UK policy director Dr Doug Parr told HuffPost UK the plan “smacks of desperation”, as the benefits are “dubious at best”.
He added: “With the vast majority of all flights being taken by a minority of frequent fliers, a third runway will mostly benefit wealthy jet-setters who like to spend their cash abroad.”
Green Alliance’s executive director Shaun Spiers said that the plan “fails on every front – environmentally, economically and politically”.
He added: “This is a desperate grab for headlines by the chancellor, not a real plan for long term growth.”
No 3rd Runway Coalition chair Paul McGuinness pointed out that Heathrow is “yet to submit an application for its expansion,” while Gatwick’s second runway – which could also receive approval as part of the Treasury’s plans – is ready now.
“If the government adheres to its carbon commitments, there will not be enough room left in the carbon budget for an enlarged Heathrow to fully operate, even if eventually constructed,” he said.
Meanwhile, transport campaigner at Friends of the Earth, Jenny Bates, said it would be “hugely irresponsible”, especially since the world passed the 1.5C threshold for the first time in 2024.
“It would also fly in the face of the prime minister’s promise to show international leadership on climate change,” she added.
How will top Labour figures react?
A lot of Labour MPs – including Starmer, but notably not Reeves – voted against expanding Heathrow back in 2018.
Ed Miliband, currently the energy secretary and once the Labour leader, even led a revolt against the same proposal in 2009 and threatened to resign from Gordon Brown’s cabinet.
However, he told PA news agency “don’t be ridiculous” when asked if he could walk away from the government this time around.
Miliband refused to get into specific speculation about Heathrow, but said it was right aviation expansion takes place as long as it doesn’t also break the UK’s environmental commitments.
Transport secretary Heidi Alexander – who was a deputy mayor under Sadiq Khan for three years – is also thought to be opposed to a third runway.
“The Parliamentary Labour Party is supportive – some are very keen and some are not that arsed."”
Northern Ireland secretary Hilary Benn, meanwhile, said in 2018 that “Heathrow expansion is incompatible with our environmental and climate change obligations and cannot be achieved without unacceptable impacts on local residents”.
Other cabinet members who have voted against a third runway in the past include Anneliese Dodds, Steve Reed, Darren Jones, Lisa Nandy and Ellie Reeves, the chancellor’s sister.
However, none of them are expected to break the Labour whip if, as expected, the government backs expansion in its pursuit of economic growth.
The majority of Labour MPs are thought to be either in favour of a third runway or at least not concerned enough about it to rebel.
One senior party insider said: “The Parliamentary Labour Party is supportive – some are very keen and some are not that arsed.”
The views of the Labour Growth Group, which has around 100 MPs, will be hugely influential.
Chris Curtis, the group’s co-chair, said the UK must become “a country that finds ways to say yes to things rather than a country that finds ways to say no to things”.
He said: “Yes we need to make flying more environmentally sustainable and we need to make sure that we’re investing in sustainable aviation fuel.
“But most of these plans are going to be flying anyway, so why not make sure London is one of the hubs for those flights?”
While conceding there are “legitimate” environmental concerns for those living near Heathrow, Curtis insisted that expanding the airport would “create a lot of jobs and opportunities” for the local community.
“We cannot let the things this country needs to achieve constantly be blocked because we look for reasons to say no to projects rather than reasons to say yes,” he said.
“That’s going to mean people in politics having conversations with voters and explaining to them why this is a good thing.”
Meanwhile, a split between the Labour government and Sadiq Khan, the party’s London mayor, is also brewing.
He is a longstanding opponent of a third runway and told the London Assembly on Thursday that his views “haven’t changed”.
He said while aviation is “important for growth, jobs and prosperity,” there is a climate emergency right now.
He said a new runaway would have to deal with “carbon targets, concerns around noise pollution, and concerns around air pollution”.
But, when asked about potential opposition to her plans earlier week, Reeves stood firm.
Speaking from Davos, she said: “The answer can’t always be no. That’s been the problem in Britain for a long time.”
She added: “When we say that growth in the number one mission of this government, we mean it – and that means it trumps other things.”
Could the government face opposition from across the House?
Labour does have a huge Commons majority, meaning it would take an enormous rebellion for it to lose any parliamentary vote on Heathrow expansion.
But Green Party MP Siân Berry told HuffPost UK that there was a “cross-party coalition” who are “ready to fight” off the idea again.
Berry described the policy as a “complete disaster and a complete distraction”.
“While the chancellor is focused on Heathrow, she could instead be focused on creating jobs right around the country, local transport, in the kinds of trips between cities within the UK that actually help to stimulate businesses, to build a more sustainable economy,” the Green MP said.
Similarly, John McDonnell – the former Labour MP for Hayes and Harlington, who was suspended by the party for opposing the government on the two-child benefit cap – will also oppose the government in any Commons vote.
He posted on X: “I can’t believe having seen the recent floods, fires and melting ice caps that he could credibly justify such a change of policy as to back a third runway now. It’s also about trust.”
Fellow left-winger Clive Lewis, meanwhile, said a third runway was “completely incompatible with the government’s own net zero strategy”.
The Liberal Democrats also pledged in their election manifesto to oppose airport expansion “until a national capacity and emissions management framework is in place”.
Opponents of the idea should not expect anything from the Conservatives, though.
Shadow economic secretary to the Treasury, Mark Garnier, told Times Radio on Thursday he did not know what their current policy was – even though the Tories were previously in support of the expansion.
The Conservative Party did not respond when asked for clarity on their stance.
So where does this leave Starmer and Reeves?
There is no denying the pair are stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to following their pro-growth pledges while also trying to stick to their environmental policies.
And Heathrow expansion would be a hugely controversial choice after Labour promising to “lead from the front” when it comes to tackling the climate.
Starmer also said in February 2020: “There is no more important challenge than the climate emergency. That is why I voted against Heathrow expansion.”
For a prime minister with an unenviable reputation for changing his mind, would backing a third runway prove to be a U-turn too far an already sceptical electorate?