In the normal way of things, losing 20% of your MPs would normally be deeply damaging for a political party.
But there is little normal about Reform UK.
Earlier this month, Westminster was gripped by the war of words being played out on social media between party leader Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe, one of Reform’s four other MPs.
A day after accusing the Reform leader of acting like a “messiah”, Lowe found himself suspended by the party amid bullying allegations which he vehemently denies.
The Great Yarmouth MP refused to go quietly, repeatedly using his X account to mount vitriolic attacks on Farage, who responded in kind.
But, despite the reams of negative headlines the row engendered, the party’s standing in the opinion polls has barely been affected.
Indeed, earlier this week, pollsters Survation found that Reform UK are now more popular than ever in Scotland – a country where Farage once had to be locked in a pub to get away from a baying mob outside.
Here, HuffPost UK examines how Reform UK has seemingly retained its popularity with the public – and whether or not it can last.
What do the polls actually say?
While some recent surveys have put Reform in the lead, most have them roughly neck-and-neck with Labour and the Tories.
The party still appears to have the support of between 23% and 25% of the population, a level which has not as yet been affected by the Lowe controversy.
Luke Tryl, executive director of the More in Common think-tank, told HuffPost UK: “Reform UK appears to have weathered the Rupert Lowe controversy relatively unscathed.
“Unlike Farage, Lowe isn’t a household name – even among Reform voters. In isolation, these internal disputes haven’t yet shifted public perceptions of the party.”
Could there be trouble ahead?
While Farage’s gift for political communication is undoubtedly a boon for the party, his friendship with Donald Trump, and reluctance to criticise Vladimir Putin could yet do Reform a lot of damage.
Tryl said that there are “early signs that Reform’s ascent might be starting to slow”.
He said: “Our focus groups suggest this has more to do with the party’s controversial positions on climate and Ukraine, along with Farage’s close association with Donald Trump.
“As of yet, this conflict has yet to undermine Farage’s popularity. His challenge will be to maintain momentum despite these tricky issues and ensure that internal drama doesn’t become a regular feature of his party.
“If Reform wants to be seen as a serious party of government, they’ll need to project credibility and unity.”
Former Reform UK spin doctor Gawain Towler admitted there is “discomfort and disquiet” among party activists over the way the Rupert Lowe row has been handled.
He said: “About 2% are really upset, the rest wish it hadn’t happened, but if anything it’s made them more determined.
“They understand better than Westminster or Twitter that what we are doing is hugely important. They feel that it’s four years until the next election, it’s a long way off, so if this sort of shit is to happen it’s better to happen now.
“You can only win as a team and Rupert wasn’t a team player, as much as we love him.
“If we don’t get it together, if we don’t keep the faith, we’ve got five more years of Starmer coming because the Tories aren’t going to win. Although the members aren’t happy, they also realise that it’s the first chance in their lifetime that a non-big two party could really break the mould.”
Never mind the ballots
Opinion polls are one thing, but can Reform turn their support into actual votes when it really matters?
Fortunately, we don’t have long to wait to find out, with more than 1,600 council seats up for grabs – as well as a likely by-election in Runcorn – taking place on May 1.
With Reform currently only holding nine of those council seats, the party is virtually guaranteed to make gains at the expense of both Labour and the Tories. The big question, though, is how many.
It is worth noting that of the 224 council by-elections which have taken place since last July, Reform has won just 12.
The Runcorn by-election, meanwhile, is a straight shootout between Reform and Labour, who won the seat with a 15,000 majority last July.
A win for Farage’s troops will send shockwaves through Westminster - and shivers up the spines of dozens of Labour MPs. A defeat, however, will put a huge question mark over Reform’s ability to back up its big talk with action.
What are Labour doing to counter the Reform threat?
Although Farage’s ambition is for Reform to ultimately replace the Tories as the UK’s main right-of-centre party, it is Labour MPs who could be most at risk from them come the next election.
Reform came second to Labour in no fewer than 89 seats at the general election, many of them in the Red Wall constituencies which backed Brexit in 2016 and Boris Johnson three years later.
Jonathan Ashworth, the former MP who is now chief executive of the Labour Together think-tank, said his party had to be relentless in pointing out Reform’s flaws.
He said: “Labour has to continue to put Reform under scrutiny because voters don’t like Farage’s unpatriotic fawning over Putin and when presented with his comments in the past about the NHS they don’t like the idea of having to pay for knee and hip operations. Labour need to continue punching that bruise.”
A Red Wall Labour MP said: “Reform are a populist party with no policies and no manifesto. They say yes to everyone – that’s the challenge on the doorstep for Labour MPs right now.
“A lot of voters are not comfortable with Trump’s relationship with Farage, or Putin, but they are looking for answers. It’s the same as Brexit. Reform are a populist party filling a void – but they can’t deliver.
“It’s a challenge, but we have to rise to the challenge. Local elections will be the real test.”
But a Reform UK spokesman said: “The latest polling confirms what we all know – Reform has all the momentum in British politics.
“Whilst Westminster focuses on bubble issues, we are focussing on the issues that matter to working people. Voters feel betrayed and let down by all parties, whether that be Labour, the Tories or the SNP in Scotland.
“They are crying out for real change and that’s what we intend to give them.”