A public sector strike is scheduled to take place on every day for the second half of December – and workers have suggested they won’t be backing down soon.
As Royal Mail workers, railway employees and nurses – to name just a few – call for improved working conditions and pay rises in line with inflation, the government is still resisting.
Prime minister Rishi Sunak has dubbed union leaders “unreasonable”, and signalled that he and his ministers will not negotiate any pay settlements.
But there’s no denying the disruption this has triggered across the country.
So, while it’s unlikely that any action will be announced this side of Christmas, here’s what some pundits believe the government will do next.
1. Stricter legislation?
BBC Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt reported that the mood on the strikes overall is “absolutely resolute” – and that the government plans to introduce legislation in the New Year to impose some limits on strikes among public sector work.
Watt said this stems from a 16-point plan first outlined by current business secretary Grant Shapps when he was running to be the next Tory leader in the summer.
This includes a minimum service guarantee and increasing the threshold for strike ballots from 40% to 50%.
Sunak promised last week that he would bring in “new tough laws” to limit strike action, telling MPs: “If union leaders continue to be unreasonable, then it is my duty to take action to protect the lives and livelihoods of the British public.”
There is a bill which has been introduced to Parliament which would ensure minimum service levels on transport networks during strikes, but MPs – and the Lords – are yet to debate this.
2. Banning strikes for emergency services?
Sunak also did not rule out a complete ban on strike action for emergency services last week, even when he was pressed by MPs.
Louise Stewart, from government relations firm Hume Brophy and former BBC political correspondent, told HuffPost UK: “In some industries, such as the military and the police, strikes are already banned as a matter of public safety.
“Now, with nurses and ambulance workers due to walk out before Christmas, the government seems to be considering expanding this policy to other areas such as health and critical infrastructure.”
3. Or may there be more leniency towards the NHS?
As Watts noted, the government fears the public is “instinctively sympathetic” to the requests from nurses.
And, as Stewart told HuffPost UK: “The current strikes are set to add a significant burden to a healthcare system already stretched to the limit.
“The military will need to learn not just how to drive ambulances but how to use medical equipment. This may push their current skillset to the extreme.”
She warned that the government will be keen to not to fall back on the military to “bail out ministers unable to solve disputes” in the long-term.
But, she noted: “Policymakers are showing no sign of leniency or willingness to compromise.”
4. Blaming inflation?
The government has repeatedly warned that increasing public sector wages would increase the already 40-year-high levels of inflation.
On top of that, it has claimed this will all cost £28 billion for the taxpayer (although this has been disputed by economists).
Stewart speculated that the government has “no option but to stick to the hardened line that more money isn’t available”, now that it has used it so often.
She predicted: “The only thing the government can do is minimise public disruption and win the ‘PR war’ through a ‘battle for hearts and minds’.”
Stewart said the PM should aim to maintain “positive relations with staff and trade unions, whilst at the same time protecting the public” – although tensions with the rail workers’ unions are already straining.
She continued: “With an increasing number of strikes planned, there is a danger that the public become desensitised to strike action and zone out.
“The government must therefore provide clear and concise communication to remove some of the uncertainty around planned strike action and allow people to make alternative plans where possible.”
So, what should we expect?
As Watts warned on BBC Newsnight, “no decision has been taken” but ministers are still looking at every option right now.
If the rhetoric from the government is anything to go by, Downing Street has no plan on backing down anytime soon.
It is still refusing to move on pay for rail workers or nursing unions, claiming it cannot amend decisions from independent pay bodies.
Stewart explained: “This means that currently, the only way to end the strikes would be for the unions to back down.”
And that’s exactly what they’ve vowed not to do – so it’s a stalemate, for now.