Robert Jenrick is “nailed on” to make it to the final two candidates in the race to be the next Tory leader, according to his allies.
The former immigration minister is one of six Conservative MPs currently vying to replace Rishi Sunak.
That number will be reduced to five on Wednesday when the first ballot of Tory MPs takes place in the Commons.
Kemi Badenoch, who is the bookies’ favourite, will formally launch her campaign later today.
But allies of Jenrick are increasingly confident that momentum is building behind their man and that they have the necessary support to make it to the final run-off, when party members will decide who wins.
A campaign source said: “In terms of where the race is right now, we are very confident as a team that we have an absolute nailed on route to 41 votes and getting to the final two.
“Depending on exactly who votes.... you need 40 or 41 votes. We are very confident that we have those votes and a clear path to achieving them.”
Badenoch has come under fire for taking time off over the summer to go on holiday with her family.
In an apparent swipe at his rival, a Jenrick campaign source said: “This campaign doesn’t take holidays.
“We’ve been out across the country having fun, meeting Conservative Party members. We’ve done dozens of events across the country. We’ve met literally thousands of members, been to all four nations, and been taking our message out across the country.”
They added: “We’ve been working very hard with MPs. Our style has been to be as active as possible, to be as personal as possible, to be respectful and to listen to people’s concerns and to go and meet them in their constituencies over the course of the summer, and to try to build a broad coalition of people.
“We’re bringing together a broad coalition of people which I hope will enable us to do well on Wednesday and then move forward with confidence towards the final two.”
An aide to Badenoch told HuffPost UK last week: “Most MPs understand the value of taking a break after the election, and clearly the members care more about getting the best candidate rather than the one who did the most media in August: in the only truly independent poll by YouGov Kemi was the outright leader by a distance.”