The bridge connecting Russia and Crimea appears to have been damaged – leading to speculation that Russia could lose the prized peninsula it annexed years ago.
Russia seized the Ukrainian land in 2014, in a move which many see as the true beginning of the war between the two nations although Moscow only officially began its invasion in February last year.
The crucial 12-mile road and rail Russian-built Kerch Bridge between the peninsula and Russian mainland is also seen as Vladimir Putin’s prestige project.
On Monday, Ukrainian media reported Ukraine was behind blasts heard on the bridge.
Russian-installed officials were quick to blame Ukraine for what it calls a terrorist attack, after two people were killed and their daughter was wounded.
And, according to an advisor to the Zelenskyy administration and the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, Tymofiy Mylovanov, this is all a sign that Russia is losing its grip on Crimea.
Mylovanov, who also served as a minister between 2019 and 2020, tweeted on Monday morning: “Crimea is vulnerable and over time Russia won’t be able to hold it. This episode shows why.”
Mylovanov also pointed out that the bridge is “within fire capabilities” of Ukraine and the sole connection between Crimea and Russia.
He added: “Ukrainian armed forces have been making slow but steady progress towards cutting this bridge.”
Kyiv has claimed to have retaken 81 square miles of territory since this phase of its counterattack began.
He added: “Regardless of what exactly happen[ed] tonight, Ukraine is capable of making this bridge untenable over time.”
Mylovanov pointed out that Russia could use ferries to reach Crimea instead, but this is also vulnerable to drone attacks.
He continued: “If Ukraine continues to put pressure on logistical connections between Russia and Crimea eventually Russia will have to abandon Crimea.
“Couple with drone and missile attacks on key military bases in Crimea, Ukraine can make Crimea a place that is not secure for Russian military.”
Ukraine has not openly taken responsibility for recent explosions seen in Crimea, but Moscow blamed Kyiv for various drone attacks in the peninsula last year.
The bridge itself was damaged in a blast last October, when a truck blew up while crossing the bridge according to Russian officials. Ukraine only indirectly took credit for the attack later, when listing the bridge as one of Ukraine’s military “successes” of last year.
“Once Russia can’t keep military in Crimea, there is no point for Russia and Russian people to stay there,” Mylovanov noted. “And Ukraine can take as much time as needed to achieve this goal.”
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also vowed to retake all of Ukraine’s land in the war – and that includes Crimea.
Meanwhile, Putin is looking to consolidate the gains he has made throughout the war, including Crimea and the eastern region, the Donbas.
Mylovanov said: “In many ways, liberating Crimea is easier than liberating Donbas. And it would hurt Putin much more.”
The bridge is essential for transporting fuel, food and other products to Crimea and it’s a major supply route for Russian forces fighting in the south of Ukraine.
Hours after this alleged attack on the Kerch bridge, Russia has suspended its participation the UN-brokered deal which permitted the safe export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea to tackle a global food crisis.
However, Russia says the attack had nothing to do with it, as deal was meant to expire on Monday.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Black Sea grain deal package did not fulfil its conditions to Russia.