Russia could falsely claim a new victory in Ukraine this week due to “increasing political pressure” ahead of the one-year-anniversary of the invasion, according to UK intelligence.
Friday will mark 12 months to the day since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine, in an operation which was supposed to last just a few days.
But, after a strong defensive response and hugely successful campaign in the autumn from Ukraine, Russian troops now only hold some land in the east and are far from conquering the capital of Kyiv.
Moscow is thought to have reduced its focus to just taking the Donbas (the Donetsk and Luhansk regions).
In its latest update, the UK’s ministry of defence warned: “Russian forces are likely under increasing political pressure as the anniversary the invasion draws near.
“It is likely that Russia will claim that Bakhmut has been captured to align with the anniversary, regardless of the reality on the ground.”
Bakhmut, in the frontline Donetsk region to the east, has been under attack for months and has a symbolic, rather than strategic, meaning to both sides.
Russian forces have surrounded it since July, but the area has been well protected by a nearby river and woodlands.
It had a pre-war population of 70,000, but now fewer than 5,000 civilians are thought to still live there.
Moscow already prematurely declared victory in the town of Soledar in January, at a time when a fierce battle over the area was still raging.
The update comes after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was quoted in the Italian daily Corriere della Sera as saying his forces would hold Bakhmut, within reason.
“Like many others in Donbas, (it’s been) devastated by the Russians. It is important for us to defend it, but not at any price and not for everyone to die,” he said.
The MoD then touched on the speculation that Russia will launch a renewed attack on Ukraine this week to mark the end of the harsher winter period and the one year since the war began.
It added: “If Russia’s spring offensive fails to achieve anything then tensions within the Russian leadership will likely increase.”
The UK intelligence has previously suggested growing friction between the main Russian forces and the paramilitaries in the Wagner group.
The MoD suggested that Russia was also pursuing lines of attack in the Ukrainian towns of Vuhledar and Kremina, also in the east.
However, it added: “Casualties reportedly remain high.”
It also said the “elite” infantry brigades have sustained “very high losses” in some of these areas, and “are likely combat ineffective”.
It comes after Ukraine claimed on February 12 that Russian soldier death rate was the highest since the first week of the war, with 824 troops dying per day in February so far.
These figures cannot be verified but the MoD claimed that they were “likely accurate”.