Western apprehension over a Russian invasion of Ukraine has dominated the news cycle recently – but just how will the UK be affected, now that the worst has happened and Vladimir Putin has invaded its neighbour?
Here’s a breakdown of how tensions in eastern Europe are likely to impact Britain, and why.
What’s just happened?
Russia has gradually built up a force of close to 190,000 troops around the Ukrainian border over the last few weeks but maintained that it had no intention to invade – until last night.
Putin already sent in “peacekeeping troops” to two separatist regions of Ukraine on Monday – prompting the West to issue a string of sanctions against Russia – but went even further early Thursday morning when he declared war on Ukraine.
He said he was launching a “special military operation” in the east of the country.
The Russian president said his goal was the “demilitarisation” of Ukraine, warning that if the West were to interfere they would endure “consequences they had never seen”.
The West have already made it clear it will side with Ukraine if tensions were to escalate.
Why has Russia invaded?
While there are a lot of complicated factors going on, it essentials boils down to a power play.
Russian president Vladimir Putin wants to assert his power over the neighbouring country of Ukraine because he believes they should both be under the same sphere of influence, as they were both part of the Soviet Union in the 20th Century.
He does not want Ukraine to shift closer to Europe and the West in general.
Ukraine wants the opposite – it aspires to be part of the EU and Nato (the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) rather than under Russia’s control and so is firmly resisting Putin’s threats.
It has also refused to drop its bid to join Nato, even though some believe that could placate Russia.
What’s this got to do with the UK?
The UK is on the other side of Europe to Ukraine and is no longer part of the EU – but it is still an integral member of Nato.
Nato has a strong partnership with Ukraine (even though the country is not an official member) so it’s not surprising prime minister Boris Johnson has also joined in with Western allies in calling for an immediate de-escalation from Putin.
Johnson is hosting an emergency COBRA meeting about the offensive from Putin and will be announcing further sanctions on Russia.
He tweeted: “President Putin has chosen a path of bloodshed and destruction by launching this unprovoked attack on Ukraine. The UK and our allies will respond decisively.”
The West has made it very clear that, in line with Nato values, it will back Ukraine in its fight for sovereignty.
In fact Johnson emphasised that this problem affects the whole of the continent, by describing Russia’s intimidation tactics as Europe’s “biggest security crisis” for decades.
As foreign secretary Liz Truss said last week: “The UK remains unwavering in our support for the hard-won peace, freedom and democratic progress that has been made since Ukraine’s independence.”
The government has also repeatedly noted that it does not recognise Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea (part of Ukraine).
How will the UK respond to the Ukrainian invasion?
Johnson tried to engage Russia in meaningful talks prior to the invasion, because “it’s far better to begin a discussion now than to have a catastrophe”.
When that failed, No.10 sanctioned five Russian banks and three “hit net wealth” individuals. Johnson will announce more sanctions later on Thursday.
The foreign secretary also warned last week that harsh UK sanctions could have far-reaching consequences.
She said: “Whether you support Russia’s aggressive actions against Ukraine or you’re of wider significant to the Kremlin, we will have the power to sanction you. Nothing is off the table and there will be nowhere to hide.”
The UK has sent a few military personnel to the nearby area, too.
Around 350 Royal Marines from 45 Commando were sent to Poland this week – taking the total numbers of military personnel there up to 500 – as the two countries continue to work together to try and de-escalate the tensions around Ukraine.
They are likely to prioritise any emerging humanitarian crises there rather than participating in conflict.
Nato is unwilling to send troops into Ukraine itself although the UK has supplied around 2,000 anti-tank missiles to the country.
Johnson was asked last week if he would authorise the Army to support Ukraine if there was an invasion. He said: “We will consider what more we can conceivably offer.
“It’s possible, I don’t want to rule this out, but at the moment we think the package is the right one. But I want to stress it would be an absolute disaster if it was to come to that and there would be serious bloodshed on Ukrainian soil.”
The prime minister did confirm that 1,000 more troops would be put on alert in the UK if Russia were to invade although Downing Street is likely to follow the lead set by Nato.
So what about the rest of Nato?
Nato has said it will listen to Russia’s concerns about wanting Ukraine not to join the organisation but its core values, of allowing each nation to choose its own path and defending all allies, will not be compromised.
Nato has also promised to block the Nord Stream 2 Russia-to-Germany gas pipeline if Russia goes any further.
Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz also warned: “It’s necessary for Russia to understand that a lot more could happen than they’ve perhaps calculated with themselves.”
Forces are on standby in eastern Europe, and Nato is working with Ukraine to modernise its forces and protect it against cyber attacks.