Russia does not have “enough munitions to achieve success” in Ukraine, according to the latest UK intelligence.
Moscow is waiting for Ukraine to launch its Spring counteroffensive, after months of bloody battle where the frontline remained mostly unchanged, but thousands were killed.
US intelligence estimates there have been 20,000 Russian deaths and more than 80,000 injuries since the start of December.
Meanwhile, the UK’s ministry of defence has claimed fractures within the Russian chain of command are becoming increasingly clear – especially as Russian military-linked social media claims Vladimir Putin’s deputy defence minister Colonel-Genreal Mikhail Mizintsev has been dismissed after just eight months.
The MoD said: “Mizintsev’s sacking was not immediately confirmed, but speculation about his future highlights how logistics problems remain at the heard of Russia’s struggling campaign in Ukraine.
“Russia does not have enough munitions to achieve success on the offensive.
“Paucity of ammunition drive internal divisions, most notably between Russia’s ministry of defence and Wagner Group.”
The Wagner Group is a mercenary organisation which has been at the forefront of the war. Half of Russia’s dead are Wagner fighters, according to the US’s National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
The MoD’s analysis also comes after Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin suggested that Russia’s huge losses in Bakhmut in particular can be blamed on the lack of equipment (casualties there are five times higher compared to the rest of the UK).
Prigozhin said: “It would have been five times fewer if we had more ammunition.”
Prigozhin has been unusually outspoken about the Russian Army’s efforts in recent months, often making it clear any success of his own mercenaries was completely independent of the Kremlin.
The MoD said that this fundamental flaw in logistics was having a serious impact behind the scenes.
“Russia continues to give the highest priority to mobilising its defence industry. but it is still failing to meet war time demands,” it said.
“While Russia’s political leaders persist in demanding success on the battlefield, Russia’s logistics professionals are stuck in the middle.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine is planning to use hundreds of armoured vehicles and tanks donated by the West, which has also helped them with training troops.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also warned that Ukraine is looking to reclaim the Crimean peninsula – seized in 2014 – as well.