Tory Poll Guru Says Sinn Fein Will Be The Largest Party At Northern Ireland Elections

Lord Hayward has predicted a bad night for the unionist parties on May 5.
Sinn Fein President Mary Lou McDonald (right) and Vice President Michelle O'Neill
Sinn Fein President Mary Lou McDonald (right) and Vice President Michelle O'Neill
Brian Lawless via PA Wire/PA Images

Sinn Fein is on course to win to become the largest party in Northern Ireland, a Tory poll guru has predicted.

Lord Hayward said the party, which wants to see a united Ireland, will triumph in the Assembly elections on May 5.

He said that would lead to “serious constitutional implications” for the United Kingdom as a whole.

According to the most recent Sevanta opinion poll, Sinn Fein are on 25 per cent, well ahead of the DUP - currently the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly - on 17 per cent.

The Ulster Unionist Party and the non-aligned Alliance are both on 14 per cent, with the nationalist SDLP on 11 per cent.

Lord Hayward said: “Sinn Fein will be the largest party on May 5 and therefore there will be serious constitutional implications come May 7, May 8, May 9.

“The unionists, and the DUP in particular, are facing serious problems and that will be a major issue for Northern Ireland and British politics.”

Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive must be made up of parties from both sides of the constitutional divide.

At the moment, both the DUP and Sinn Fein have 26 seats each in the 90-seat Assembly.

The DUP’s Paul Givan was first minister until he resigned last month in protest at the post-Brexit Northern Ireland Protocol, which created a customs border between Britain and Northern Ireland.

His deputy was Sinn Fein’s vice-president Michelle O’Neill.

If Sinn Fein were to become the largest party at Stormont, they would step up their calls for the UK government to grant a border poll on Irish reunification.

Sinn Fein is already the join-largest party in the Irish Dail, where it has 36 seats, the same number as Fianna Fail.

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