History suggests that Labour’s road to Downing Street must always run through Scotland.
Proof of this can be found in the fact that the party has been nowhere near power since the 2015 SNP tsunami, which saw Labour all-but wiped out north of the border.
After returning seven MPs two years later, the Scottish Labour contingent at Westminster was reduced to one again in 2019.
While success in Scotland does not mean a Labour government is inevitable, a poor showing north of Hadrian’s Wall makes it virtually impossible.
Labour’s fortunes in Scotland could be about to change, however, thereby boosting Keir Starmer’s chances of becoming the next prime minister.
Every seat gained in Scotland is one less that needs to be won in England. In an election of fine margins, that could be crucial.
Opinion polls in the past week have confirmed a trend which has been developing for some time - the gap between the SNP and Labour is narrowing.
Savanta put Labour just four points behind the Nationalists, a dramatic shift from 12 months ago, when the SNP enjoyed a 21-point advantage over their arch-rivals with the same pollster.
Survation, meanwhile, put Labour just three points behind the SNP, as did Redfield and Winton.
“There’s no doubt that their vote is tanking,” one senior Scottish Labour source told HuffPost UK. “If there was an election tomorrow and we didn’t win 20 seats we’d be very upset.”
An increasing number of SNP MPs are also deciding that they’ve had enough of Westminster.
Mhairi Black was the latest to announce that she will be standing down at the next election, blaming the “toxicity” of parliament for her decision.
The party’s deputy leader at Westminster became the sixth SNP MP to announce she is standing down, and more are expected to follow suit. It certainly doesn’t suggest they are confident as the general election approaches.
“Whenever they talk about how miserable and hard it is for them to attend Westminster I just keep hearing the theme music from The Great Escape,” said one Scottish Labour insider.
But one SNP MP hit back: “People are massively over-reading the whole ‘rats deserting a sinking ship’ kind of thing, although I can understand why they might be thinking that.
“I’m not hearing anybody saying that things are so bad I’m going to jump before I’m pushed.
“The simple truth is our candidate selections open on July 10 and the party wants everything done by the end of August, which is why those who want to stand down are announcing it now.”
The same MP did acknowledge, however that there is “clearly a shift” of voters from the SNP to Labour.
“This is a challenge like we’ve never experienced since the independence referendum in 2014,” the MP said.
“But it’s not because Labour’s driving a great Scottish agenda. It’s because people are sick and tired of the Tories, while 16 years of SNP government at Holyrood brings it’s own baggage. We’ve also lost our most popular leader ever in Nicola Sturgeon.”
That analysis is challenged, however, by Ian Murray, Labour’s sole MP in Scotland.
He said: “We’ve been given an opportunity and we’re working very hard for every single vote by concentrating on what matters to ordinary Scots - things like the cost of living, mortgages, jobs and the NHS.
“A Labour government at Westminster would strengthen the UK and also build a better Scotland within it. Scottish Labour MPs are determined to play an integral part in that process.”
With the next election not expected until October next year, there is still plenty of time for the SNP - and the Tories - to get their respective acts together.
But as things stand at the moment, Starmer has been presented with a golden opportunity to become the UK’s next Labour prime minister.