British politics has for months been a surreal mix of inertia and volatility. As the zombie Parliament drags on, paralysed by the Brexit impasse, even the smallest spike in activity and subtlest change in prime ministerial language can cause frenzied panic.
Yesterday was no different. After Theresa May’s 90-minute meeting with the grandees of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady’s single most important sentence was this: “We have agreed that she and I will meet following the 2nd reading of the [Withdrawal Agreement] Bill to agree a timetable for the election of a new leader.” The pound plunged to a three-month low, amid fears that a no-deal Brexit was more likely.
Only a fortnight ago, May’s authority as leader was temporarily enhanced, as she sacked Gavin Williamson over the Huawei leak. On Tuesday this week, she started Cabinet by reading the riot act to those who breached collective responsibility. She clung on to control over her departure date, though the Cabinet agreed it was ‘imperative’ her Brexit legislation cleared Parliament by late July. Ambiguity and wriggle room have long been May’s secret weapons on her own exit. May’s catchphrase ‘I’ve been clear’ is a long-running joke at Westminster, with good reason.
And so it is that we have varying accounts of what the PM actually signed up to yesterday. Some of those present felt that she had indeed made plain she’d be gone by the end of July. Others were certain that the ‘timetable’ meant May would be gone by June 30. Yet some of her allies believe she’s still not committed to a specific date. Government sources complained that Brady’s statement had been ‘over-interpreted’.
With not an ounce of irony, the dreaded word ‘backstop’ is even being used favourably by the Brexiteer ultras on the ’22. “The summer is our backstop,” one says. Nigel Evans told the Times: “I want her out. The process to replace her is already under way — we’ve got cabinet ministers speaking outside their portfolio — we might as well make it official.” Yet the fact is that there is still no ‘official’ timetable and May looks like she wants to delay her exit to avoid Boris Johnson from steamrollering his way to No.10.
Given that May wants to deliver Brexit, and needs her Withdrawal Agreement Bill to pass, why would she put it in jeopardy by announcing that she was going to quit this summer, come what may? At a stroke, neither Labour MPs nor Brexiteer Tories have any incentive to vote for her legislation if they know she’s going to be gone regardless of the outcome of the second reading vote. There’s chatter that she may finally start campaigning today for the European elections. If so, will she use her own words - rather than those of Graham Brady - to be clearly unclear once more?
He’s been quiet for some time, but the Tory leadership ‘lion’ that is Boris Johnson finally woke from his slumber yesterday and announced “of course I’m going to go for it”. In classic Boris fashion, this was a jokey, throwaway line delivered at an event where he was paid handsomely by business to make an appearance. His press officer wasn’t there, neither was his unofficial campaign manager (former Tory MP James Wharton). That rough sketch of his ambition, blurted out in an unplanned way, sums up for both admirers and critics just what Johnson is really like. Friends view him as refreshingly spontaneous, yet serious. Enemies see him as unprepared, frivolous and deeply lazy.
Either way, the brute fact is that in recent weeks Boris and his team have got their act together in terms of getting the number of MPs needed to get into the top two for a Tory leadership race. With marvellous serendipity, James Forsyth in the Spectator has a cover story this week titled ‘Time For Boris?’ It’s a great read, pointing up that part of Johnson’s problem to date has been his personal shyness (yes, it’s true) in befriending the new intakes of MPs from 2015 and 2017. His calmer personal life has combined with a slimmer frame and new haircut designed to show he may be finally ready for a proper tilt at the top job.
Several former Boris fans are unconvinced. Michael Gove is sure to ram home his point that Johnson was simply incapable of being serious about statesmanship (the real reason he stabbed him in the front in 2016). Dominic Raab, Johnson’s main rival for as the no-dealer candidate, last night picked up the backing of ex-Boris ally Nadhim Zahawi. “I want to see a Prime Minister who has the ability and the seriousness to be able to deliver a deal. I’m not frightened of a WTO Brexit,” he told Newsnight. Only recently Zahawi was scathing about no-dealers, but now he’s flipped. And remember this is a minister of the crown, openly supporting a contender to replace his current boss.
Still, a new Politico-Hanbury poll on the Tory leadership (there’ll be lots of these in coming months folks) puts Johnson in front among 2017 Tory voters and, crucially, way ahead among those likely to vote for Farage’s Brexit party next week. Raab and Gove are miles behind. Yet while Boris may be the short-term fix for the Conservatives’ current panic about Farage, his huge negatives among non-Tory voters will worry middle-of-the-road backbenchers who think Boris can never be a post-Brexit leader. Remember David Cameron was so spooked by Farage’s 2014 European election triumph that he then made a Brexit referendum a reality. Five years later, will the Tories turn a similarly short-term panic into a long-term nightmare?
Cameron allies (they exist, as last night’s 50th birthday bash for ex-No.10 spinner Craig Oliver proved) argue that in fact Farage’s revival - and the popular support for him across all parties - just proves why the ex-PM was right to call a referendum. And why the Tory party can only move on once it delivers Brexit. Let’s see about that.
Momentum in politics really matters, and that’s what Nigel Farage certainly has right now. But so too do the Liberal Democrats. Today’s YouGov/Times poll puts Vince Cable’s party ahead of Labour for the first time (16% to 15%) in the Euro election campaign. The Tories are in fifth place behind the Greens.
This has long been the fear of Labour MPs pushing for greater clarity on a second referendum. When you burrow into the YouGov poll it shows 55% of Labour Remainers going to the LibDems, Greens and Change UK and 47% of Labour Leavers going to the Brexit Party. On our Commons People podcast this week, Ed Davey (who is sure to run for his party leadership though he’s still coy about it) had actually predicted his party would surge past Corbyn’s as the MEP election race went on. He says the Lib Dems’ deep grassroots and history, as well as its safe haven for moderate Tories, means it is the only real pro-Remain party capable of taking on Farage.
Meanwhile, the slo-mo car crash that is ChangeUK (on 5% in the YouGov poll) continued its horror show yesterday. Joan Ryan’s ‘hands’ moment was so buttock-clenchingly awful that it will have been seen by many floating voters as proof that the new party was fundamentally unserious. The Guardian’s John Crace writes a devastating sketch of a ChangeUK event, depicting Chuka Umunna as “disengaged – bored even – staring into the middle distance, as if lost in a private nightmare”.
As for Labour’s poll-damaging closeness to the Tories of late, we should find out from Jeremy Corbyn today just whether it’s Tory whips’ spin that the cross-party talks have actually ended. It may well be the talks continue but do indeed focus now more on ‘definitive votes’ and process, rather than the substance of a grand bargain between the two parties. But don’t forget there may also be specifics on workers’ rights and the environment that are still worth the two sides talking about.
Many Australians are raising a glass in tribute to one of their most charismatic and able post-war prime ministers, the much loved Bob Hawke, who died yesterday. He once held the record (11 seconds) for downing a yard of ale when he was at Oxford. Watch him down a beer, to a hero’s reception, a cricket match.
The BBC has done a public service in mapping the details of the 100 fatal stabbings in the UK so far this year. Knife crime in England and Wales rose to record levels in 2017-18, and the number o of deaths is the highest since records began in 1946. But there is some good news amid the gloom. In 95 cases an arrest was made and in 86 charges have been brought.
Donald Trump has announced his administration’s new immigration plan to attract ‘the best and the brightest’ (isn’t that May’s line?) from around the world, upping the number of visas for skilled workers and deploying civics and English tests. But as our sister site in the US reports, it was swiftly dismissed by the Democrats for restricting family immigration and doing nothing for the ‘Dreamer’ generation of undocumented children of migrants.
COMMONS PEOPLE
Ex-Cabinet minister Sir Ed Davey joins us (his first ever podcast dontcha know) to chinwag about being approached by MI6, working in a pork pie factor and Ed Balls using his A-level history notes. He also sets out why the Lib Dems are the only party to take on Farage in the Euro elections. Click HERE for Audioboom and below for iTunes.
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