Just 57 days to go to Exit Day. Or are there? On the Today programme this morning Jeremy Hunt became the first Cabinet minister to seriously suggest that Brexit could be delayed, even if for a short time. He admitted that the necessary legislation was piling up with the clock running down, confirming publicly what ministers have told me privately, that a ‘technical’ extension of Article 50 may well be now needed. “If we ended up approving a deal in the days before 29 March, then we might need some extra time to pass critical legislation,” Hunt said.
We should find out from Andrea Leadsom more at Business Questions on whether there really will be a cancelled February recess or longer hours. There’s a suspicion among Labour that the next two weeks will be filled with very little of substance as the government is desperate to avoid anything being ambushed or hijacked with Brexit-related wheezes from the Opposition, ahead of February 13. The Trade Bill, stuck in the Lords, may well not be heading back to the Commons any time soon, precisely because of fears of a customs union amendment.
As for May’s engagement with Brussels on the vexed backstop issue, the idea of new technology as a solution is being actively explored. One Cabinet minister described the “Malthouse Compromise” to me this week as “nonsense”. But there could also be a change in the abritration and ‘best endeavours’ section of the withdrawal agreement that could unlock the issue of exit mechanisms, some insiders claim. No.10 seemed firm yesterday to us that a ‘codicil’ or addendum just won’t cut it, and cited the PM’s words that ‘changes’ to the agreement are needed instead.
But the brute fact is that whatever new proposals are hammered out, they will need time and EU full discussion. Just as importantly, May needs to get her plans given a tacit nod by her Brexiteer MPs first. That’s why Hunt’s line that “this is not going to happen in the next few days” was very tellling this morning. Keir Starmer has been predicting for some time now that an extension to Article 50 is inevitable. He’s looking to have yet again called it right.
Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May met for 45 minutes in her Commons office yesterday. Afterwards, a clutch of us hacks waiting nearby (a biscuit selection was carried in on a tray to this historic one-on-one) were briefed by Corbyn’s spokesman that it had been a “serious and engaged” meeting. The PM was “interested in exploring the detail” and there was “a detailed exchange of views on a customs union and a single market.” It was not the gloomy gathering some had expected.
Now, it’s worth pointing out the Tories refused to brief on the meeting, and May could have just been humouring the Labour leader. Yet those present think she was genuinely engaged, though her tweet afterwards (stressing the need for an independent trade policy) suggested a customs union was still off the table. As I said yesterday, May is a Tory to her fingertips and the last few days have taught everyone she will do everything to avoid a party split by opting for ‘Brexit in name only’.
Greg Clark is among those ministers who clearly hold out hope that a customs union package could allow a Tory-Labour alliance. “I don’t think we should aim for this deal to pass by a majority of one or two … I would like to see a substantial majority for a deal,” he told Peston last night. And BuzzFeed’s Alex Wickham reports even some Brexiteers think a customs union could be a stop-gap. ‘Norway for Now’ sounds logically impossible, but never forget Michael Gove said lets’ just get Brexit delivered and then change it later. Corbyn notably praised Common Market 2.0 backers in his speech the other day. In Wales, Plaid are hoping Labour’s First Minister’s support for a second referendum is a sign it’s still a live option. Plaid’s leader blogs for us HERE.
But May and Corbyn have more in common than many assume. Both want to keep their parties united, both want to get Brexit done and both want to avoid getting the blame for a no-deal. Corbyn is highly unlikely to ever be seen ‘colluding with the Tories’ by whipping his party to vote for a Brexit deal put forward by May, even if it included workers and environmental rights. Yet this week also taught us how many Labour Leave seat MPs are implacably opposed to delaying Brexit, let alone reversing it in a referendum. And those northern MPs can allow Corbyn to quietly get May over the line, without his fingerprints. The Times’ great scoop that ministers are looking at offering cash help to northern Labour areas will probably be dismissed publicly by Labour’s frontbench, but secretly welcomed.
We have a report from Wolverhampton, a Vote Leave heartland, that is a reminder that for some of the public the idea of a no-deal Brexit is actually quite popular. “If they won’t be flexible about a deal then why should we bow to them?” Jimmy Slater tells us. Well, even if some voters are ready for life without an agreement, the government certainly isn’t, judging by a new Institute for Government/BBC analysis out today. “The disruption from no deal - simply from the lack of preparation - would be extremely damaging,” says director Bronwen Maddox.
What was very striking yesterday was the way more EU figures are now talking seriously about no-deal. “If we have a choice to make between two evils, well then no-deal is the lesser evil,” said Philippe Lamberts of the European Parliament’s Brexit steering committee. And the European Commission adopted three new no-deal measures (allow Erasmus students to complete studies, protect pension contributions of UK nationals in EU, allow UK beneficiaries to continue getting EU funds if UK pays its share).
The counter to this was a neat Twitter thread from the WSJ’s Germany corr Bojan Pancevski, who said Germany’s GDP forecast was halved yesterday in part because of Brexit. He suggests Berlin is more open than France to giving concessions on the backstop. Still, Austrian foreign minister Karin Kneissl told the Today programme that no-deal was more likely. And if you want an indication from the Commons of how sanguine some MPs are about that, check out the DUP’s Sammy Wilson joking that if there are food shortages in supermarkets, people can just ‘go to the chippy’.
Watch the video that’s spread like wildfire among some in Team Corbyn. Historian Rutger Bregman told a Davos meeting that: “We’ve got to be talking about taxes, taxes, taxes. All the rest is bullshit.” At the same session, Oxfam’s Winnie Byanyima also said: “Don’t tell me about low levels of unemployment, you’re counting the wrong things, you’re not counting dignity of people, you’re counting exploited people.” Oh, and this Davos defence of high taxes on the rich, is also being shared among Labour staffers.
We’re not anything like the Chicago polar conditions yet (Trump proved again he just doesn’t get climate change), but a big freeze is certainly spreading across the UK. And although there should be a year-round focus on rough sleepers, it’s sub-zero temperatures and the threat of death that ought to make politicians really take action. In London, Mayor Sadiq Khan last night welcomed a new addition to his scheme to get firms and others to offer emergency shelter space. He joined Unite chief Len McCluskey to open four ground-floor meeting rooms as beds for the homeless.
Climate change doesn’t seem to be hurting oil giant Shell’s profits, which were up 36% to £16bn this morning. And data scandals don’t seem to have hurt Facebook’s earnings, as it posted all-time high fourth quarter profits of £5bn. With delicious timing, Parliament’s Science and Technology Committee today calls for a new independent regulator of social media firms to help combat online grooming and bullying. Children’s Commissioner Anne Longfield also urged tech giants to back a legal duty of care obligation, and finance a digital ombudsman.
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