Top pollster John Curtice believes Labour’s historic victory in July was down to Boris Johnson and Liz Truss – not Keir Starmer or his party.
According to the political scientist and professor, Starmer’s win was mainly because of the damaging legacy left behind by two of his predecessors.
Speaking at Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool on Sunday, Curtice said the divisive Tory PMs were the “principal architects” behind the election results, according to POLITICO’s London Playbook.
Starmer is already dealing with several other setbacks at his first Labour conference since getting into No.10.
He’s facing backlash over restricting winter fuel payments to just those on pension credit, accusations of sleaze within his party after it was revealed that he had taken more than £100,000′s worth of freebies from Labour donors, and questions over the salary of his chief of staff, Sue Gray.
A series of unflattering polls have added insult to injury for the PM, too.
Savanta found that 48% of Labour voters would consider voting for other parties if there was an election tomorrow.
Meanwhile, More In Common found one in five Labour voters (17%) regret their decision to support the party.
The pollsters also found three in five people expect Labour to lose the next general election, and 52% of those surveyed said they did not think Starmer would still be PM by the time voters go to the polls again.
Starmer led Labour to a landslide victory, but the party secured barely one-third of the popular vote – suggesting there could be problems further down the road.
Indeed More In Common concluded that Labour could lose its whopping 167-seat majority at the next election without losing a single vote from the public, if those on the right manage to group behind one party together.
That would leave the Tories on 293 seats and Labour on 273, according to the researchers.
More in Common’s Luke Tryl said: “Our analysis suggests a modest growth in their vote share to 36% is the magic number that would allow the party to see off a threat from a ‘united right’.
“Fail to do that and the party could find itself out of office, even without losing a single vote.”
Starmer himself is also falling out of favour, already – Opinium believes the PM’s approval rating has fallen to -26% after less than three months in office.
YouGov found just 34% have a “very favourable” or “somewhat favourable” view of the PM, while 57% have a “somewhat unfavourable” or “very unfavourable” view.
Curtice also had a very pointed warning for Starmer while speaking at a fringe event for the conference on Sunday.
He claimed the new PM’s gloomy message about the state of the country could “potentially go down badly” – but he could turn it around, into a narrative of optimism.
He said: “Rishi Sunak couldn’t construct the narrative. I certainly don’t think that Sir Keir constructed the narrative during the election.
“The question is, does he have the political ability to do so? That is still an open question, but constructing that story is important.”
Alluding to the ongoing row about the number of freebies ministers have received from Labour donors, Curtice said: “I think politicians have also made a major mistake about focusing on personal mistakes and foibles and all the rest of it.
“The truth is, what you sow you reap, and I think you must expect, given the way that you very heavily attacked the integrity of the last Conservative government, that the Conservative Party is going to return it in spades.”