The Conservatives’ own ad has suggested they could get fewer voters than both Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
A Facebook post, paid for by the Tories, has a very clear graph predicting Keir Starmer will win 490 seats, the Liberal Democrats will win 61, the Conservatives will win just 57 and Reform UK will win none at all.
Bizarrely, this prediction is lower than even the worst polls so far – even a mega-poll from Survation predicted that the Tories would take away 71 seats, while a large MRP from Electoral Calculus suggested they would get 66.
The graph is part of a 45-second video arguing that voting for any party other than Labour will hand Starmer 100 extra seats, giving the party “the largest majority” it has ever had.
The ad caption reads: “Reform can’t win any seats. But they can help Keir Starmer win. Do you really want to hand Starmer a blank cheque?”
Considering the Tories secured 365 seats in the 2019 general election – and are currently in government, of course – this is shocking take for the party to be promoting.
PM Rishi Sunak has recently changed tactic to suggest that his main opponent Keir Starmer is definitely going to win, but that voters should just try to reduce his majority.
That’s a stronger message than after the local elections in May where the Tories saw significant losses.
At the time, the PM suggested there would be a hung parliament with “Keir Starmer propped up in Downing Street by the SNP, Liberal Democrats and the Greens”.
Sunak has faced disaster after disaster since he called a snap election while standing in the pouring rain at the end of last month.
His litany of PR errors include leaving D-Day commemorations early and being called out for making a misleading tax claim about Labour.
There’s also been a mass exodus of former Tory MPs announcing they were not standing for election once again, with 74 Conservatives stepping back.