WASHINGTON ― While President Donald Trump’s unhinged tweets may have already stepped on the message, senior White House aides are betting that his conspiracy theories about a 75-year-old Buffalo, New York, protester will fade quickly while “defund the police” could be a key campaign flashpoint for months to come.
“The Democrats are giving a wink and a nod to the ‘defund the police’ movement all on their own ― even if Biden was hedging all over himself,” a senior White House aide told HuffPost, referring to former Vice President Joe Biden’s careful statement on Monday.
The Democrats’ presidential candidate said he “hears and shares the deep grief and frustration of those calling out for change,” but a campaign aide separately clarified that Biden doesn’t support defunding the police. The aide pointed out that, in fact, Biden’s plans call for greater funding.
Still, White House strategists seem to believe they can reasonably connect Biden and other Democrats with the “defund the police” slogan, which has quickly gained momentum as a response to the police killing of George Floyd and other Black Americans, as well as the systemic racism and excessive violence exhibited by U.S. police departments.
In part, that’s because many Democrats have been careful not to completely dismiss the defunding idea, understanding that a large swath of liberal voters are so fed up with police violence and targeting of minorities that they are truly willing to live without traditional law enforcement. Many Democrats have also interpreted “defund the police” to mean rebalancing local budgets away from the police and more toward programs that address the root causes of crime ― like poverty, drugs, and underfunded education and social services.
Democrats wonder how potent labeling them as the “defund the police” party will really be. Republicans tried a similar tactic in 2018 by connecting Democrats to calls to “abolish ICE,” the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. Trump also tried painting a “caravan” of immigrants headed to the United States as an invasion. Neither strategy worked too well, as Democrats picked up 41 seats that year to take control of the House.
“There haven’t been two consecutive weeks in this entire cycle where Republicans have been able to string together a coherent message,” a national Democratic campaign strategist told HuffPost. “Now they’re refusing to come to the table while the country calls clearly for reforms in our policing system.”
But the White House seems to think that this time around, “defund the police” could have enough staying power to undercut Democrats’ electoral chances.
“The name ID and personal connection to ICE is infinitely low compared to ‘police,’” the senior White House aide said. “Just about every household and community in America has a connection to a police officer. Even for people who know what ICE is, most see it as some far-off government bureaucracy — not a community embed.”
This aide argued that in 2018, no narrative was going to overcome the historical tendency that the party not occupying the White House takes back congressional seats during a midterm election. And tactics like whipping up fears over the caravan may have helped in a few places, such as Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, where Republican Jim Hagedorn narrowly defeated Democrat Dan Feehan. Trump and Republicans were also able to make immigration a top issue in the 2018 midterms, with 78% of respondents in one Gallup poll calling it an extremely or very important issue.
Which is all to say that Trump creating an issue out of thin air with that caravan may have actually had some effect ― though probably not as much as he had hoped.
One reason the White House thinks “defund the police” could be different from previous campaign issues is that it draws attention away from negative aspects of the Trump presidency ― like the coronavirus pandemic, the state of the economy and the president’s personal antics ― and places the political debate where Republicans could have the upper ground: in a culture war.
Another White House aide was clear that opposing calls to “defund the police” would definitely be a centerpiece of Trump’s campaign even if Democrats didn’t come out more forcefully in favor of the idea. “There is no greater gift,” this aide said.
The National Republican Congressional Committee has been issuing press releases all this week asking if such and such Democratic candidate wants to defund the police.
There are slight differences among the press releases, but the essence is the NRCC asking where the candidate stands on the “party’s drive to abolish the police.” Will that candidate “bow down” to the Democrats’ “insane base,” the NRCC typically asks, and if not, what are they doing to “stop this insanity”?
Again, much of the traction to be gained will depend on how forcefully Democrats distance themselves from these calls ― and how much Trump steps on his own messaging by tweeting offensive conspiracy theories.
The president, never one for subtlety, has claimed that Biden wants to defund not only the police but also the military. And he has repeatedly compared his calls for “law and order” to those calling to defund the police.
“LAW & ORDER, NOT DEFUND AND ABOLISH THE POLICE. The Radical Left Democrats have gone Crazy!” Trump tweeted on June 8.
Initial polling indicates that defunding the police is widely unpopular. A HuffPost/YouGov poll taken this week found that, among registered voters, 14% strongly support, 15% somewhat support, 16% somewhat oppose, 45% strongly oppose and 11% are unsure about the idea.
Even when voters were asked whether they favor budgeting less money for police and more for social workers and mental health professionals, the results were not great: 44% support that policy, while 46% oppose it.
And those numbers may not change much with more information.
In the new poll, 61% said they already understand that defunding the police means reducing the size of the police force and the scope of its work, while only 18% said it means completely abolishing the police force.