The US and the UK could be on the cusp of granting Ukraine access to use long-range missiles against Russia.
In a move which could turn out to be pivotal for the war, there’s speculation the White House is considering lifting its restrictions on the weapons, something Kyiv has been requesting for months.
Here’s what you need to know and why it’s a big deal.
What’s the West’s current position?
Throughout the war, the US has preferred Ukraine to stay in a more defensive position.
It has refused to give Kyiv weapons which might allow them to target deep inside Russia in case it escalates the conflict into a battle with Nato – or even a nuclear war.
The United States has gradually permitted Ukraine to use some long-range weapons – like ballistic missiles which can travel up 190 miles to reach their targets – to hit the Russian border, because that’s where their opponents often fire from.
Other countries supporting Ukraine have been offering long-range weaponry over the course of the war, but with certain caveats about how they can be used against Russia.
Again, this comes down to a Western fear about provoking Russia into a wider war, something Vladimir Putin has threatened time and time again.
For instance, the UK has given Ukraine Storm Shadow missiles (which have a range of 155 miles), but it has prohibited Kyiv from using them to fire into Russia.
Ukraine has become increasingly frustrated with these rules, particularly over recent months, and officials have repeatedly requested that the measures to be lifted.
Why could all of this now change?
When reporters asked if he was considering dropping the restrictions against Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons on Tuesday, the US president Joe Biden said his administration was “working that out now”.
It comes as US secretary of state Antony Blinken and foreign secretary David Lammy head to Kyiv to meet Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, where the politicians are expected to talk about the next stage of the war.
Asked about Ukrainian use of long-range weapons, Blinken said he wanted to make sure Kyiv was able to be as “effective as possible in warding off Russian aggression”, and that the US would “look and listen” to Zelenskyy at the meeting.
While all of these responses are far from confirmation that long-range missiles are on their way to Ukraine, they strike a noticeable softer tone – sparking speculation that Kyiv could be given the go-ahead within weeks.
What’s triggered this change?
It comes after Blinken accused Iran of sending short-range ballistic missiles to Russia and warning they could be used against Ukraine within weeks – a significant escalation on Russia’s end.
Referring to Russia’s decision to share nuclear technology with Iran in exchange, he said: “This development and the growing co-operation between Russia and Iran threatens European security and demonstrates how Iran’s destabilising influence reaches far beyond the Middle East.”
Such weapons would enable Moscow to target Ukrainian cities close to the areas Russian troops already occupy while also hitting sites further into Ukrainian territories.
Lammy also said Tehran’s decision was a “significant and dangerous escalation”.
Iran’s move was met with new sanctions from the UK, the US and across Europe, including banning Iran Air flights from UK airspace.
Tehran has denied supplying any self-guided weapons to Russia, and said it will respond to the new sanctions with “appropriate and proportionate action”.
Defence secretary John Healey also told the Commons on Tuesday that the war was in a “critical moment” with Russian weapons “out-firing Ukraine by at least three to one”.
But he said it as crucial for Ukraine to hold the Russian territory of Kursk to weaken Moscow.
Why is this a big deal?
In one of his many warnings against the West, Putin hinted that any use of Western missiles against Ukraine would escalate the war.
“Constant escalation can lead to serious consequences. Do they want a global conflict?” He said in May.
He claimed strikes inside Russia would be blamed on Kyiv’s allies who provided the weaponry, even if it was Ukraine who fired them.
And in July, Putin said if the US sent long-range to Germany, he would view that as an escalation – and do the same.
The Russian president claimed: “We will take mirror measures to deploy, taking into account the actions of the United States, its satellites in Europe and in other regions of the world.”