Vladimir Putin is still struggling to re-assert himself in the Middle East after the fall of his ally Bashar al-Assad’s regime, according to the UK.
The Russian president helped to prop up the dictator’s regime in Syria since 2015 amid years of civil war, in exchange for a foothold in the region.
Moscow also used its connections in Syria to send mercenaries across the Middle East and Africa, and had two military bases set up in the war-torn nation.
But Putin unexpectedly chose not to help Assad suppress rebels in December – presumably due to the strain the Ukraine war is putting on Russian resources – and the Syria dictator was overthrown.
Assad and his family have since been granted asylum in Russia, ”for humanitarian reasons”, according to the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, Putin denied that Moscow was defeated in Syria at the time, saying Russia had achieved its objectives in 2015, and was now negotiating with the new Syrian leaders.
But, according to the UK’s ministry of defence, more than six weeks after Assad was ousted, “uncertainty concerning the future of Russia’s presence and capability in the Eastern Mediterranean remains high.”
One of the Kremlin’s large concerns is how it will access its military bases now – particularly the Tartus naval centre on the Mediterranean coast, for which there is “no comparable alternative base,” according to the MoD.
So it remains unclear how Moscow will continue to establish itself in Syria, but it is “almost certainly seeking to retain a presence in the Mediterranean”.
The UK intelligence officials said: “Its [Russia’s] ability to logistically support both its military and its Private Military Contractors in Africa, as well as limiting the reputational damage incurred through the fall of the Assad regime, will almost certainly be priorities for the Russian government.”
UK officials said they are not sure if Russia will redeploy forces or equipment to other areas in North Africa, especially as the Ukraine war continues to rage.
The MoD said: “The Russian leadership almost certainly considers the Ukraine conflict to be their primary concern.
“Russia’s prioritisation of the Ukraine conflict likely degraded Russia’s ability and capacity to keep the Assad regime in power.”
The MoD’s latest update on X comes shortly after Donald Trump was officially sworn in for his second term as US president.
The Republican is expected to pressure Putin to agree to a peace deal in Ukraine, telling reporters that Ukraine wants a deal, but he does not know if the Russian president does.
Trump said: “He might not. I think he should make a deal. I think he’s destroying Russia by not making a deal. I think Russia is kinda in big trouble.
“You take a look at their economy, you take a look at their inflation in Russia. I got along with [Putin] great, I would hope he wants to make a deal.”