Ukrainian officials have expressed serious concern Russia is “technically ready” to initiate a local nuclear explosion at the Zaporizhzhia power plant.
The Ukrainian station is home to Europe’s largest nuclear facility, but occupied by Russia – and very near the frontline of the war.
Now, Kyiv thinks Moscow has called for Russian workers in the plant to leave by July 5, prompting speculation that something could be about to happen to the station.
Why is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant so important?
As Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, there are concerns it could trigger a major nuclear disaster if struck – by accident or on purpose – in the ongoing war.
After all, the Chernobyl nuclear disaster happened in the north of Ukraine back in 1986, and it’s still radioactive today.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (the UN’s nuclear watchdog) has warned that there could be some incredibly dangerous consequences if Zaporizhzhia plant were damaged amid the war’s violence.
The plant is technically occupied by Russia right now – the Zaporizhzhia oblast was one of the four places Russian president Vladimir Putin illegally annexed last year – but the station is still mostly run by Ukrainian technicians, reportedly at gunpoint.
Parts of the nuclear reactors have also been targeted by artillery for months, as both sides try to claim the area.
Ukraine has made it clear that it wants to reclaim all of the land Russia has tried to occupy, taking it back to its 2014 borders with its current counteroffensive, while Moscow is unlikely to give up any of its gains from the war so far – which is why Zaporizhzhia has worried nuclear experts for months.
And the area around it still have plenty of people living there.
Describing a city just a “hair’s breadth” from the plant, Nikopol, New York Times’ correspondent Jeffrey Gettleman suggested: “If there is a symbol of Ukrainian insouciance in the face of clear and present danger, it might just be this city.”
Why does Ukraine think it’s going to be blown up?
Just last month, the Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro river collapsed.
Downstream to the nuclear plant, its water supplies were used to help cool the nuclear reactors.
Ukraine has persistently blamed Russia for the attack – and there’s a growing body of evidence to back up such a claim – although Moscow has blamed Kyiv.
Not only was widely condemned as a war crime, putting local communities and the plant at risk, it prompted speculation among Ukrainians that Russia would not hesitate to do something equally violent to Zaporizhzhia power plant.
Now, Ukrainian intelligence suggests Russian workers in the plant and Russian military personnel were instructed to leave before this Wednesday – a detail the State Emergency Service of Ukraine claim to have uncovered while conducting radioactive safety drills in Zaporizhzhia region last week.
Ukrainian military intelligence said in a statement: “Among the first to leave the station were three Rosatom employees, who managed the actions of the Russians. The personnel remaining at the station were instructed to blame Ukraine in case of emergencies.”
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Spanish journalists in Kyiv over the weekend: “There is a serious threat. Russia is technically ready to provoke a local explosion at the plant, which could lead to the release of dangerous substances into the air.
“We are discussing all this with our partners so that everyone understands why Russia is doing this and put pressure on the Russian Federation politically so that they don’t even think about such a thing.”
He even said that if at some point in the future it came back under Ukrainian control, Russians could blow up the power station from a distance.
Zelenkyy said: “There can be remote mines – then to say that everything was fine under the control of the occupiers, but blew up as soon as it went back to Ukraine.”
Ukrainian spy chief Kyrylo Budanov issued a similar warning in June, claiming that the part most likely to be blown up would be the artificial pond needed for cooling the power station.
Are there any signs Russia is looking to blow up the plant?
`Western experts seem less panicked than their Ukrainian counterparts though.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said it observed no mines around the cooling pond during their visit, although it doesn’t have access to all sites at the plant.
The UN watchdog also said on June 21 they were aware of previous placements of mines outside the perimeter, and in some places inside – which Russian security personnel on site say are for defensive purposes.
The IAEA’s director general Rafael Mariano Grossi warned: “The nuclear safety and security situation at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant is extremely fragile.”
Similarly, Biden officials said they were not sure a threat was imminent but they were watching “very very closely”.
What does Russia say back?
Maria Zakharova, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, has dismissed any claims that Moscow intends to harm the station.
She said this was just a “false flag” operation from Kyiv, after it carried out radioactive safety drills and set additional radiation measure devices in several cities – but she did not present any evidence to back up her claims.