Vladimir Putin is set to skip a summit in South Africa in August to avoid any tensions over his international arrest warrant.
While the Russian president is expected to tune in virtually, his absence speaks volumes about his place on the world stage right now.
The International Criminal Court issued a warrant for the Russian president over the supposed forced transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia in March.
As South Africa is part of the International Criminal Court, it would be expected to arrest the Russian president if he visited for the Pretoria summit of BRICS countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, between 22 and 24 August.
But, this puts the country in a sticky situation.
South Africa has been one of the few countries not to vocally oppose Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, choosing to remain neutral instead, and the ruling African National Congress party has refused to cut ties with Moscow.
Like several African countries, it did not join in with the sanctions imposed against Moscow by Ukraine’s Western allies.
The South African government released a statement on Wednesday, which explained: “By mutual agreement, president Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation will not attend the summit but the Russian Federation will be represented by foreign minister, Mr Sergey Lavrov.”
A Kremlin spokesman confirmed to Russian state media Ria Novosti on Wednesday that Lavrov would be attending, but Putin would have “full participation” in conference remotely by video.
This news came a day after the South African president Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed that his country had “obvious problems” arresting the Russian president.
That would constitute a “declaration of war,” he said.
In March 2022, the Russian embassy in South Africa claimed it had a “great number of letters of solidarity” from South Africans.
“We appreciate your support and glad you decided to stand with us today,” before adding the baseless Russian propaganda that Moscow is “fighting Nazism in Ukraine”.
Not only is it the biggest arms suppliers for the continent, Russia also joined its ally China in South Africa for joint military drills in February. That was also around the first anniversary of the Ukrainian invasion.
The South African leaders also haven’t apologised for their ongoing links to Russia despite the pushback from the West, despite ongoing backlash from the West.
In January, South Africa’s foreign minister Naledi Pandor, publicly said to her Russian counterpart Lavrov: “I’m really proud that we enjoy excellent diplomatic relations with your country, which we regard as a valued partner.”
In May, the US ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigety, accused the country of “arming” Russia calling it “fundamentally unacceptable” – although South Africa’s foreign ministry said there was no evidence to back that claim up.
Then in June, Ramaphosa led a delegation of African leaders to try and initiate peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
Russia is expected to host another meeting with African leaders in St Petersburg on July 27 to 28.