2024 has officially arrived – and brought a cold blast and a smattering of snow with it.
Temperatures have dropped below average for January, bringing overnight frost, fog and icy conditions.
This cold snap marks a sudden change from the wet and windy Christmas which hit the UK at the tail-end of last year, and caused chaos up and down the country.
But, while it may look quite picturesque when the sun is shining, our high heating bills mean many of us are already asking: When will it be over?
The Met Office published a blog post on the topic on Monday and explained why it’s key to look at global weather conditions to understand what’s happening with us.
The experts said: “Our long-range forecast systems suggest that there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions compared to normal as we head through the rest of this winter with an increasing risk of cold weather impacts such as snow and ice. ”
El Nino – the naturally occurring weather front which warms up the Pacific Ocean – is now in full swing, having gradually set in across 2023.
That means the “second half of winter and early spring will be colder and drier than the first half” according to the weather experts at the Met Office.
On top of that, there’s the Sudden Stratospheric Warming – which, despite its dramatic name, will actually only be a minor contributor to a cold weather.
But, this warming can still trigger a “blocked” weather pattern for the UK, preventing low pressure systems coming in across the Atlantic, and making “mild, wet and windy conditions for southern Europe”.
One set of winds above the equator could also push in cold weather from the north or east into the UK, while another above the North Atlantic could reduce the risk of storms but increase the likelihood of colder weather coming in from the west.
So, with all that in mind, Met Office’s head of long-range forecasting, Professor Adam Scaife predicted there will be “more blocked, colder and drier conditions in the coming months”.
Of course, British weather is also being impacted by the climate crisis – which means we should probably enjoy colder, snowier winters when we can.
Previous Met Office analysis suggested in 2020 that snowy winters could become a rarity – and that by the 2040s, most of southern England will no longer see the temperature drop below 0C.
The UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology revealed earlier this month that the period between July and December earlier this month was the UK’s wettest on record.
Linda Speight of Oxford University told The Guardian: “A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture so that when it rains, the rainfall is heavier and more likely to lead to flood.
“In particular, we know that climate change is leading to warmer and wetter winters in the UK.”
Referencing Storm Henk which hit the UK over Christmas, she added: “We will unfortunately experience more winters like this one in the future.”