Farmers’ fury with Labour has been painfully clear in Westminster in recent weeks – and, unfortunately for Keir Starmer, more is expected in 2025.
Much of the focus has been on the government’s decision to reduce the inheritance tax relief for those with large estates in the autumn Budget.
This led farmers to park their tractors in Whitehall in protest in recent weeks, beeping their horns to make sure Starmer could hear their discontent.
There has since been speculation that farmers may withhold non-perishable goods in further protest, with more industrial action potentially planned for January.
But this frustration among the agricultural sector goes beyond one particularly unpopular decision by chancellor Rachel Reeves.
Farmers believe they have already been repeatedly been hung out to dry by the last two governments, first by the Tories via Brexit and then by the incoming Labour administration.
There are also fears further chaos may be around the corner, if Labour manage to strike a free trade deal with Donald Trump. Here’s what you need to know.
When did it really start? The Brexit impact
Farmers were hit hard by the decision to leave the EU, according to Liberal Democrat MP and former MEP, Caroline Voaden.
She told HuffPost UK: “Farmers have been really badly hit for years and years and years and you can just see the damage that was done after we left the EU.”
A recent report by the Centre of Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) found shipping of UK food and agricultural products to the EU has dropped by more than 16% on average across the three years since Britain left the EU.
That works out to a £2.82bn decline in produce being exported per year, according to the report.
The export health certificates by meat and dairy farmers have also cost the British food industry more than £200m since Brexit controls came in back in January 2021, the government’s own Animal & Plant Health Agency found.
That includes certificates which can cost up to £200 each and are needed to send some food items to the EU. For items with a shorter shelf life, which need to be expedited, these certificates can cost even more.
These mounting costs then trickle down to consumers, too.
To make matters worse, the strain on UK farmers is now heavier because of the tenuous relationship with the EU.
Voaden pointed out how Britain – but not other EU countries – encountered a tomato shortage in 2023 when a drought hit suppliers in Spain.
She said: “It’s now really tricky to export to the UK because of all the red tape. So who’s the first country that loses their exports? Us, because of Brexit.”
“We are the only country in the world that as put up trade barriers with another country ever,” the MP for South Devon said. “It just feels like the world has gone a bit mad.”
How Budget ire took over Westminster
While Starmer has ruled out rejoining the EU single market – and is trying his best to move on from Brexit altogether – he faced fresh rage from farmers over the autumn Budget.
In October, chancellor Rachel Reeves announced farmers would no longer enjoy 100% inheritance tax relief on their estates if they are worth more than £1m.
Starting from April 2026, they will have to pay 20% tax.
Labour say just 500 estates a year will end up paying more when passing their estates onto the next generation, based on an analysis of farms from 2021-2022.
However, the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) group claim this is not accurate and the real figure is closer to 20,000 over the next 40 years.
The National Farmers Union suggests the real impact will be much greater, with up to 75% of commercial farm businesses caught in “the eye of this storm”, and to 70,000 farms hit by the tax over time.
The CLA also found the average farm will have to allocate 159% of its profits to inheritance tax each year for a decade.
It’s worth noting almost nine in 10 UK farmers already had a succession plan in place for their farm before Reeves’ Budget changes.
Farmers also say paying inheritance tax will push up food prices, lower food production and force them to sell off land to pay the tax.
“It’s another sign that British farmers are being disrespected and poorly treated by one government after another,” Voaden said. “They are being squeezed on every side.”
The issue has become a nationwide hot topic, with high-profile figures like broadcaster (and farmer) Jeremy Clarkson joining the 13,000 farmers protesting in Westminster in December.
As Voaden told HuffPost UK: “If we’re serious about food security, if we’re serious about maintaining our farming sector and producing good food in this country, and we have to support our farmers.”
This is not an issue the government can ignore, either, after its landslide electoral win.
Labour has 81 MPs across rural parts of England, Scotland and Wales – meaning they were all more likely to receive backlash for changes to the farming community.
A recent poll from More in Common predicted Labour would lose around 75% of its rural seats if an election were held today.
And, as YouGov found in November, 52% of Brits would either strongly or somewhat support farmers striking by withholding non-perishable items for a week in push back against the inheritance tax policy.
Some Labour MPs – like Rossendale and Darwen’s Andrew MacNae and South Norfolk’s Terry Jermy – have tentatively suggested they need more “reassurance” on the real impact the policy would have on the farming community.
US Trade deal fear
Starmer’s government is widely expected to try and strike a trade deal with the US when Donald Trump’s second administration begins, before he can impose universal trade tariffs.
But, as well as contending with their past criticisms of the incoming president, ministers are going to struggle to reach an agreement which pleases the agriculture sector.
Farmers already showed their discontent when trade deals signed under Boris Johnson saw more beef and lamb imports from Australia and New Zealand.
And the president of the National Farmers’ Union, Tom Bradshaw, told The Observer, he was “closely monitoring the political changes in the US”.
He added: “Restarting trade talks simply to avoid president-elect Trump’s potential tariffs does not strike me as the right foundation for a balanced trade agreement.
“If negotiations do proceed, it is vital that any agreement upholds the high standards we set in the UK, ensuring that products which would be illegal to produce here do not gain access to our market.”
Voaden said food standards would plummet in the UK if there was a trade deal with the US, and said that would be “just another blow to British farmers.”
She said food standards are higher here and in the EU than they are in America, particularly when it comes to chlorinated chicken, hormone-fed beef and genetically mutated food.
“With the cost of living crisis, people are always going to want to buy the cheapest,” Voaden said, which would price British farmers out of the supermarket.
The stats suggest it could impact health, too – the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 48 million Americans get ill from food borne illnesses each year— a rate of one in six people.
In comparison, the UK’s Food Standards Agency (FSA) estimates 2.4 million cases of food borne illnesses per year year—a rate of 1 in 28 people.
The Lib Dem MP said: “If the Americans start talking to us about trade deals, if we do a food trade deal, sort of meat and dairy with America, it’s quite likely that our standards would have to fall.”
So what does all this mean for Starmer?
A little over a year ago, he spoke at the NFU conference and promised a new era for farming.
Speaking as leader of the opposition, Starmer said: “Every day seems to bring a new existential risk to British farming.
“Losing a farm is not like losing any other businesses – it can’t come back.
“That’s why the lack of urgency from the government, the lack of attention to detail, the lack of long-term planning it’s not on. You deserve better.”
But these promises seem pretty empty so far.
NFU president Tom Bradshaw said he had never seen such “anger, despair and sense of betrayal” caused by the Budget announcement only this week.
Similarly, Trade Union Congress (TUC) general secretary Paul Nowak told The Independent over the weekend: “I’m worried about the impact of that on small farmers.
“You wouldn’t want the policy to impact on small family farms, because that was never the intention. The onus will be on the government to demonstrate that this doesn’t have the impact that some fear it will have.”
Even the Conservatives – who were maligned by farmers while in government for their Brexit deal and whom farmers abandoned ahead of the general election – have seized the opportunity to gang up Starmer.
Shadow environment secretary Victoria Atkins said: “Labour’s vindictive family farm tax threatens to destroy British farming as we know it.”
With a trade deal still up in the air, and the inheritance tax changes not expected to be implemented until 2026, it is not yet apparent just how farmers’ discontent will impact the government long-term.
But, there’s one thing that the farmers have made painfully clear: Starmer will reap what he sows.