Why The Row Over Brexit Could Continue For Decades Even If UK Leaves EU

Insiders say there will "100%" be a campaign to rejoin the bloc and plans are already underway.
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It’s something anti-Brexit campaigners barely even want to contemplate – what happens if Britain actually (eventually) leaves the EU?

One person involved in the push for a second referendum describes the mere thought as “treacherous”, while another says nobody is willing to concede the UK’s exit from Europe could happen.

However, conversations about a potential campaign to *rejoin* the EU should we leave have already begun.

There are now several funded and organised movements for a second referendum, supported by millions of voters who are unlikely to go away.

As one insider told HuffPost UK, those millions will not give up and there will “100%” be a campaign to rejoin, which could begin even before the end of any post-Brexit transition period.

Most concede the various campaigns for a final say, including the likes of People’s Vote and Best For Britain, would lose momentum if Theresa May’s deal, or an alternative, somehow passes the Commons.

But just as it took four decades for pro-Brexit campaigners to finally taste victory by reversing Britain’s vote to join the European Community in 1975, few expect what could be the largest pro-EU campaign in Europe to die completely.

“Some people will stay around and continue to fight a guerilla battle, and other people will get on with the rest of their wretched pro-Brexit lives,” one senior People’s Vote source said.

Another source insisted “it’s not like Japanese soldiers in the forest” who did not believe the Second World War had ended.

“I think millions of people who want workers rights and protections, access to freedom of movement and markets, I think for many people the fight will go on,” they added.

Hundreds of thousands of protesters joined a march for a second referendum last month
Hundreds of thousands of protesters joined a march for a second referendum last month
SIPA USA/PA Images

And there is already discussion around how the battle could morph if Britain leaves with a deal and enters a standstill transition period until 2021, to thrash out long-term trade relations with the EU.

One senior Liberal Democrat source said talks were ongoing in the party about a potential People’s Vote 2 campaign for a referendum on that final relationship.

The party cannot yet commit to a rejoin campaign, especially with so much to play for, but the source said “there 100% will be” one.

“Where the Liberal Democrats choose to place themselves in that will be up to democratic processes,” they said.

“With a membership where 50% of people joined because of the referendum result, I find it very difficult to imagine that we wouldn’t be at the forefront of a campaign to make sure we had the closest possible relationship with Europe.

“And in fact there’s been conversations that transition is just that, it’s transition, you are neither in nor properly out. And actually, during that time, what opportunities are there to make sure that relationship is as close as possible?

“If we haven’t secured a People’s Vote before the withdrawal agreement and before Brexit day, is it still possible to do that and say we want one at the end of the transition period?”

“There will come a point when young people are absolutely sick and tired of all of their energies going on sorting out something which they think doesn’t make any sense for our country and never did.”

Meanwhile, a source closely involved with the People’s Vote campaign pointed out that the various pro-EU movements which have sprung up following the 2016 referendum all “sit on large amounts of data” about voters.

“I imagine they will want to use that to campaign in the future on issues relating to Europe,” they said.

“You saw a million people on the streets of London (last month), millions more don’t want to leave the European Union, I don’t think they are going to give up.

“But obviously it’s much harder if we have left the European Union to rejoin.”

In any case, young people who never even voted for Brexit are likely to grow up with the consequences.

Eventually they will be the adults dealing with international challenges such as climate change and cyber security.

Lara Spirit, co-founder of Our Future, Our Choice, said these youngsters will “see a positive role for us within the EU” and identify as “more European and more proud to be European than many of the older generation”.

“That will probably come to play in politics,” she added.

“There will come a point when young people are absolutely sick and tired of all of their energies going on sorting out something which they think doesn’t make any sense for our country and never did.

“That will lead to a lot of anger but I think could lead to something very positive which is a really big change in direction.”

Richard Brooks, of FFS (For our Future’s Sake), warned Brexit is a “pivot point in a culture war”, with young people holding a more “outward-looking, open to the world, diverse” vision of the UK than older voters.

The consequences for Labour and the Tories for the future are clear, he said: “That is a constituency that clearly any politician or political party will need to speak to in order to govern.

And that could mean the Europe issue will endure – as it already has – for decades to come.

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