'A Tidal Wave': Poll Predicts Labour To Win More Than 400 Seats

"The electoral situation is getting worse, rather than better, for Rishi Sunak," says YouGov, whose forecast has echoes of the 1997 election.
Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.
Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.
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Labour is set to sweep to power with more than 400 MPs – echoing Tony Blair’s electoral landslide of 1997.

A YouGov poll suggests Keir Starmer’s party will win 403 seats – or a huge majority of 154 – as the Tories slip to just 155 MPs, a loss of 210 seats.

In the 1997 election, Blair’s “New Labour” won 418 out of the available 659 House of Commons seats.

The pollster added the “coming tidal wave” puts prominent Tories at serious risk of losing their seats, including Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Penny Mordaunt, who has been the subject of speculation over replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before the election.

The survey of 18,000 people is the second megapoll YouGov has carried out this year, with Labour adding to its lead over the Tories.

YouGov said: “If the country were voting in a general election tomorrow, Labour would win 403 seats nationwide. Crossing the 400-seat line is a significant milestone for Keir Starmer’s party in what is our second MRP projection this year.

“Their Conservative rivals would win just 155 seats according to our model, down from 169 in our January projection, suggesting that the electoral situation is getting worse, rather than better, for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives as we draw closer to the election.”

New YouGov MRP – Labour set to win more than 400 seats

Labour: 403 (+201 since GE2019)
Conservatives: 155 (-210)
Lib Dems: 49 (+38)
SNP: 19 (-29)
Plaid: 4 (=)
Greens: 1 (=)
Reform UK: 0 (=)https://t.co/OsyOEUzb0L pic.twitter.com/acJwFG2RI0

— YouGov (@YouGov) April 3, 2024

It comes as Sunak has refused to name the date of the next general election, amid suggestions he could trigger it for the summer.

Another bombshell poll has suggested the Tories are on course to win fewer than 100 seats at the election.

The Survation survey for the Best for Britain campaign group said Starmer was heading for a landslide 142-seat majority.

It found Labour would end up with 468 MPs, the Tories 98, the SNP 41 and the Lib Dems 22.

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